6 reasons we see risk/reward shifting favorably for equities given oversold conditions

The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members

VIDEO: There are 6 reasons stocks have overshot to the downside, including signs de-leveraging is complete

Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 6:28).

The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members

The 6% decline in equities since early April has been painful. And there are some who believe the "top is in" for 2024, and possibly a larger "top" (for those who think the Fed potentially now pivoting "hawkish"). But in our view, the decline in equities has worked off some overbought conditions and this has considerably improved the risk/reward for stocks in the near term:

The decline in equities has multiple drivers, but the following 5 are at the top:- first, the relentless 28% rise since October 2023 was due for a pause- second, earnings of $ASML and $TSMC triggered “red flags” on AI - third, the 3 most recent inflation reports triggered fears of “second wave”- fourth, higher inflation compels Fed to delay cuts, but markets “overshooting”- fifth, war risks generally elevating with conflict in Middle East Of the above, the only issue that could change our thesis for equities is if inflation was set to re-accelerate and thus, prompt the Fed to begin raising interest rates. This has not been our vie...

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