GRANNY SHOTS: March 2024 Super Granny update. Still risk-on as still "gas in the tank."

On Friday, 3/22, we hold our monthly webinar on the Top 5 “Super” and Bottom 5 “Sleeper” ideas within our Large Cap Granny Shot and SMID Granny Shot portfolios. We also provide a Macro Update.

If you have not yet registered, sign up with the webinar block below.

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• Updating 5 Super and 5 Sleeper Grannies
• Updating 5 Super and 5 Sleeper SMID Grannies
• Chartbook linked below

To download the slide deck for our Granny Shots Webinar, please click HERE.

MACRO: Fed confirms dovish regime, 5 implications of a dovish Fed

The rally since the March FOMC press conference (post-2:30pm ET on Wed) confirms our view that there is not only a meaningful level of skepticism (see our notes from our recent trip to Latin America and our conversation at a multi-strategy conference) but there is also a significant amount of dry powder.

• this is also confirmed by the strengthening of the major indices, even as Technology undergoes a minor correction — this is flagged by Mark Newton.
• in short, there is still “gas in the tank” and top-calling remains dangerous.
• we see fundamental reasons to see investors becoming incrementally constructive post a confirmed “dovish” Fed:
  1.  Financial conditions ease:   Market breadth expands
  2. CEO confidence recovers:   Capex cycle + Mergers + IPOs
  3. Investor confidence strengthens:    $6 trillion cash moves into stocks
  4. Interest rates fall:   Lower mortgage rates
  5. Liquidity improves:   Lending standards ease
• In all, this adds up to an improving environment for risk assets. 

As for stock ideas, our Granny Shots and SMID Granny Shots continue to outperform with gains YTD:

• S&P 500 YTD +8%
• Granny Shots YTD: +14%
• SMID Granny Shots YTD: +21%

Please tune into our webinar on Friday to hear the latest update from myself and Mark Newton, Head of Technical Strategy.

SUPER GRANNIES: 5 Super and 5 Sleeper

“Super Grannies” (most timely) and “Sleeper Grannies” are derived from our core stock list of 36 ideas called “Granny Shots”

• The rationale is many clients ask us to narrow this list of 36 names down to a list of “fresh money” ideas.
• We established a criteria of 4 factors to narrow the list to tactical buys:
  – fundamentals using DQM model managed by “tireless Ken”
  – IBD momentum rating
  – technical strength measured by Price >20 DMA, 20 DMA vs 200 DMA and combos
  – Mark Newton’s judgement on technical outlook

• We have 5 tactical buys aka “Super Grannies”
  – Arista Networks (ANET) <– carry over
  – Salesforce Inc (CRM) <– carry over
  – Meta Platforms (META)
  – NVIDIA (NVDA)
  – Cadence Design Systems (CDNS)
• The bottom 5 “Sleeper Grannies” are:
  – Zscaler Inc (ZS)
  – Garmin Ltd (GRMN) <– carry over
  – Apple (AAPL)
  – Everest Group (EG)
  – Palo Alto Networks (PANW)

SMID GRANNY SHOTS: 5 Super and 5 Sleeper

We introduced our Granny Shots 5 years ago (exact date Jan 10, 2019). Over the past 5 years, Granny Shots, our core portfolio recommendation, have beaten S&P 500 every year. Last December, we upgraded Small-caps to be the #1 recommendation in our 2024 year-ahead outlook. Many of our clients asked us for a SMID version of our Granny Shots. And here you go:

• The new SMID granny shots follow the same methodology as our “traditional” Granny Shots
• We believe the SMID granny shots could benefit from the multiple themes and secular tailwinds as well, similar to our “traditional” Granny Shots.
• The SMID granny shots were selected from a universe consisting of 2,293 small and mid-cap stocks.
• One key difference between our regular Granny Shots and SMID Granny Shots is that we used Asset Turnover as a key criterion in stock selection for the SMID list. The SMID Granny Shots are those with higher asset turnover rates vs their peers, or the ones that demonstrate a clear trend of improvement regarding the conversion of assets to sales.
• We have 5 tactical buys aka “Super SMID Grannies”
  – Super Micro Computer (SMCI) <– carry over
  – Deckers Outdoor (DECK) <– carry over
  – HCI Group (HCI)
  – Dream Finders Homes Inc (DFH)
  – Installed Building Products (IBP) <– carry over
• The bottom 5 “Sleeper SMID Grannies” are:
  – OppFi Inc (OPFI)
  – Dropbox Inc (DBX)
  – Hibbett Inc (HIBB)
  – Cargurus Inc (CARG)
  – Shutterstock Inc (SSTK)
  

Technical Notes on the 5 “Super Grannies” and 5 “Super SMID Grannies” will be provided in Mark Newton’s Technical Strategy Tonight (Large Cap Grannies) and Tomorrow (SMID Grannies).

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36 Granny Shot Ideas and 46 SMID Granny Shot Ideas: We performed our quarterly rebalance on 1/17. Full stock list here -> Click here

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PS: if you are enjoying our service and its evidence-based approach, please leave us a positive 5-star review on Google reviews —> Click here.

Key incoming data March:

• 3/01 9:45 am ET: Feb F S&P Global Manufacturing PMITame
• 3/01 10:00 am ET: Feb ISM ManufacturingTame
• 3/01 10:00 am ET: Feb F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationTame
• 3/05 9:45 am ET: Feb F S&P Global Services & Composite PMITame
• 3/05 10:00 am ET: Feb ISM ServicesTame
• 3/06 10:00 am ET: Powell Testimony before US House Financial Services CommitteeDovish
• 3/06 10:00 am ET: Jan JOLTS Job OpeningsTame
• 3/06 2:00 pm ET: Fed Releases Beige BookTame
• 3/07 8:30 am ET: 4QF 2023 Nonfarm ProductivityTame
• 3/07 9:00 am ET: Feb F Manheim Used Vehicle IndexTame
• 3/07 10:00 am ET: Powell Testimony before US Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban AffairsDovish
• 3/08 8:30 am ET: Feb Jobs ReportMixed
• 3/12 8:30 am ET: Feb CPISlightly Hot (as anticipated)
• 3/14 8:30 am ET: Feb PPIMixed
• 3/14 8:30 am ET: Feb Retail Sales DataTame
• 3/15 8:30 am ET: Mar Empire Manufacturing SurveyTame
• 3/15 10:00 am ET: Mar P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationTame
• 3/18 8:30 am ET: Mar New York Fed Business Activity SurveyTame
• 3/18 10:00 am ET: Mar NAHB Housing Market IndexTame
• 3/19 9:00 am ET: Mar Mid-Month Manheim Used Vehicle IndexTame
• 3/20 2:00 pm ET: Mar FOMC Rate DecisionDovish
• 3/21 8:30 am ET: Mar Philly Fed Business Outlook SurveyTame
• 3/21 9:45 am ET: Mar P S&P Global PMITame
• 3/25 10:30 am ET: Mar Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Survey
• 3/26 9:00 am ET: Mar S&P CoreLogic CS home price
• 3/26 10:00 am ET: Mar Conference Board Consumer Confidence
• 3/28 8:30 am ET: 4QT 2023 GDP
• 3/28 10:00 am ET: Mar F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation
• 3/29 8:30 am ET: Feb PCE

Key incoming data February:

• 2/01 8:30am ET 4QP 2023 Nonfarm Productivity Mixed
• 2/01 9:45am ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI January Final Tame 
• 2/01 10am ET January ISM Manufacturing Mixed
• 2/02 8:30am ET January Jobs Report Hot
• 2/02 10am ET: U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation January Final Tame 
• 2/05 9:45am ET S&P Global Services & Composite PMI January Final Tame 
• 2/05 10am ET January ISM Services Tame 
• 2/07 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index January Final Mixed
• 2/09 CPI Revisions Tame 
• 2/13 8:30am ET January CPI  Mixed
• 2/14 PPI RevisionsTame 
• 2/15 8:30am ET February Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame 
• 2/15 8:30am ET February Philly Fed Business Outlook SurveyTame 
• 2/15 8:30am ET January Retail Sales DataTame 
• 2/15 10am EST February NAHB Housing Market Index Tame 
• 2/16 8:30am ET January PPIMixed
• 2/16 8:30am ET February New York Fed Business Activity SurveyTame 
• 2/16 10am ET U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation February PrelimTame 
• 2/19 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index February Mid-MonthTame 
• 2/21 2pm ET January FOMC Meeting MinutesTame 
• 2/22 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI February Prelim Tame 
• 2/26 10:30am ET February Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity SurveyTame
• 2/27 9am ET February S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
• 2/27 10am ET February Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame
• 2/28 8:30am ET 4QS 2023 GDPTame
• 2/29 8:30am ET January PCETame

Key incoming data January:

• 1/02 9:45am ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI December Final Mixed
• 1/03 10am ET December ISM Manufacturing Tame 
• 1/03 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings November Tame 
• 1/03 2pm ET December FOMC Meeting Minutes Tame 
• 1/04 9:45am ET S&P Global Services & Composite PMI December Final Tame 
• 1/05 8:30am ET December Jobs Report Mixed
• 1/05 10am ET December ISM Services Tame 
• 1/08 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index December Final Tame 
• 1/11 8:30am ET December CPI Details Suggest Tame
• 1/12 8:30am ET December PPI Tame 
• 1/16 8:30am ET January Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame 
• 1/17 8:30am ET January New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame 
• 1/17 8:30am ET December Retail Sales Data Strong
• 1/17 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index January Mid-Month Tame 
• 1/17 10am EST January NAHB Housing Market Index Mixed
• 1/18 8:30am ET January Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Tame 
• 1/19 10am ET U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation January Prelim Tame 
• 1/24 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI January Prelim Mixed
• 1/25 8:30am ET 4QA 2023 GDP Mixed
• 1/26 8:30am ET December PCE Tame 
• 1/29 9:30am ET Dallas Fed January Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame 
• 1/30 9am ET January S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame 
• 1/30 10am ET January Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame 
• 1/30 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings December Mixed
• 1/31 2pm ET FOMC Rate Decision Tame 

Key incoming data December

• 12/01 9:45am ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI November Final Tame 
• 12/01 10am ET November ISM Manufacturing Strong 
• 12/05 9:45am ET S&P Global Services & Composite PMI November Final Strong 
• 12/05 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings October Tame 
• 12/05 10am ET November ISM Services Strong 
• 12/06 8:30am ET 3QF 2023 Nonfarm Productivity Strong 
• 12/07 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index November Final Tame 
• 12/08 8:30am ET November Jobs Report Tame
• 12/08 10am ET U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation December Prelim Tame 
• 12/12 8:30am ET November CPI Tame
• 12/13 8:30am ET November PPI Tame
• 12/13 2pm ET FOMC Rate Decision Dovish
• 12/14 8:30am ET November Retail Sales Data Tame
• 12/15 8:30am ET December Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
• 12/15 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI December Prelim Tame
• 12/18 8:30am ET December New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame
• 12/18 10am ET December NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
• 12/19 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index December Mid-Month Tame
• 12/20 10am ET December Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
• 12/21 8:30am ET 3QT 2023 GDP Mixed
• 12/21 8:30am ET December Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Mixed
• 12/22 8:30am ET November PCE Tame
• 12/22 10am ET: U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation December Final Tame
• 12/26 9am ET December S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
• 12/26 10:30am ET Dallas Fed December Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
• 12/29 9:45am ET December Chicago PMI

Key incoming data November

• 11/01 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI October Final Tame
• 11/01 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings September Mixed
• 11/01 10am ET October ISM Manufacturing Tame
• 11/01 10am ET Treasury 4Q23 Quarterly Refunding Press Conference Tame
• 11/01 2pm ET FOMC Rate Decision Dovish
• 11/02 8:30am ET: 3Q23 Nonfarm Productivity Tame
• 11/03 8:30am ET October Jobs Report Tame
• 11/03 10am ET October ISM Services Mixed
• 11/07 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index October Final Tame
• 11/10 10am ET U. Mich. November prelim Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Hot
• 11/14 8:30am ET October CPI Tame
• 11/15 8:30am ET October PPI Tame
• 11/15 8:30am ET November Empire Manufacturing Survey  Resilient
• 11/15 8:30am ET October Retail Sales Data Resilient
• 11/16 8:30am ET November New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame
• 11/16 8:30am ET November Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey  Tame
• 11/16 10am ET November NAHB Housing Market Index  Tame
• 11/17 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index November Mid-Month Tame
• 11/21 2pm ET Nov FOMC Meeting Minutes Tame
• 11/22 10am ET: U. Mich. November final Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Tame
• 11/24 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI November Prelim Mixed
• 11/27 10:30am ET Dallas Fed November Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
• 11/28 9am ET November S&P CoreLogic CS home price  Tame
• 11/28 10am ET November Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
• 11/29 8:30am ET 3QS 2023 GDP Strong
• 11/29 2pm ET Fed Releases Beige Book Tame
• 11/30 8:30am ET October PCE Tame

Key incoming data October

• 10/2 10am ET September ISM Manufacturing Tame
•  10/3 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings August Hot
•  10/4 10am ET September ISM Services Tame
•  10/6 8:30am ET September Jobs Report Mixed
•  10/6 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index September Final Tame
• 10/10 11am NY Fed Inflation Expectations Mixed
•  10/11 8:30am ET September PPI Mixed
•  10/11 2pm ET Sep FOMC Meeting Minutes Tame
•  10/12 8:30am ET September CPI Mixed
•  10/13 10am ET U. Mich. September prelim 1-yr inflation Mixed
•  10/16 8:30am ET October Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
•  10/17 8:30am ET October New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame
• 10/17 8:30am ET September Retail Sales Data Hot
•  10/17 9am ET Manheim October Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value Index Tame
•  10/17 10am ET October NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
• 10/18 8:30am ET September Housing Starts Tame
• 10/18 2pm ET Fed releases Beige Book Tame
•  10/19 8:30am ET October Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Tame
• 10/19 10am ET Existing Home Sales Tame
• 10/19 12pm ET Fed (including Powell) at Economic Club of New York
•  10/24 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI October Prelim Tame
•  10/26 8:30am ET 3Q 2023 GDP Advance Strong
•  10/27 8:30am ET September PCE Tame
•  10/27 10am ET Oct F UMich Sentiment and Inflation expectation Tame
•  10/30 10:30am ET Dallas Fed September Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
• 10/31 8:30am ET 3Q23 Employment Cost Index Mixed
•  10/31 9am ET August S&P CoreLogic CS home price Mixed
•  10/31 10am ET October Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame

Key incoming data September

•  9/1 8:30am ET August Jobs Report Tame
•  9/1 10am ET August ISM Manufacturing Tame
•  9/6 10am ET August ISM Services Mixed
•  9/6 2pm ET Fed releases Beige Book Tame
•  9/8 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index August Final Tame
•  9/8 2Q23 Fed Flow of Funds Report Tame
•   9/13 8:30am ET August CPI Mixed
•  9/14 8:30am ET August PPI Tame
•  9/15 8:30am ET September Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
•  9/15 10am ET U. Mich. September prelim 1-yr inflation Tame
•  9/18 8:30am ET September New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame
•  9/18 10am ET September NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
•  9/19 9am ET Manheim September Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value Index Mixed
•  9/20 2pm ET September FOMC rates decisionMarket saw Hawkish
•  9/21 8:30am ET September Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Mixed
•  9/22 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI September Prelim
•  9/25 10:30am ET Dallas Fed September Manufacturing Activity Survey
•  9/26 9am ET July S&P CoreLogic CS home price
•  9/26 10am ET September Conference Board Consumer Confidence

Key incoming data August

• 8/1 10am ET July ISM Manufacturing Tame
• 8/1 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings Jun Tame
• 8/2 8:15am ADP National Employment Report Hot
• 8/3 10am ET July ISM Services Tame
• 8/4 8:30am ET July Jobs report Tame
• 8/7 11am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index July Final Tame
• 8/10 8:30am ET July CPI Tame
• 8/11 8:30am ET July PPI Tame
• 8/11 10am ET U. Mich. July prelim 1-yr inflation Tame
• 8/11 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker July Tame
• 8/15 8:30am ET Aug Empire Manufacturing Survey Mixed 
• 8/15 10am ET Aug NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
• 8/16 8:30am ET Aug New York Fed Business Activity SurveyNeutral
• 8/16 2pm ET FOMC Minutes Mixed
• 8/17 8:30am ET Aug Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Positive
• 8/17 Manheim Aug Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value Index Tame
• 8/23 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI Aug Prelim Weak
• 8/25 10am ET Aug Final U Mich 1-yr inflation Mixed
• 8/28 10:30am ET Dallas Fed Aug Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
• 8/29 9am ET June S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
• 8/29 10am ET Aug Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
• 8/29 10 am ET Jul JOLTS Tame
• 8/31 8:30am ET July PCE Tame

Key incoming data July

• 7/3 10am ET June ISM Manufacturing Tame
• 7/6 8:15am ADP National Employment Report Hot
• 7/6 10am ET June ISM Services Tame
• 7/6 10 am ET May JOLTS Tame
• 7/7 8:30am ET June Jobs report Mixed
• 7/10 11am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index June Final Tame
• 7/12 8:30am ET June CPI Tame
• 7/13 8:30am ET June PPI Tame
• 7/13 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker June Tame
• 7/14 10am ET U. Mich. June prelim 1-yr inflation Mixed
• 7/17 8:30am July Empire Manufacturing Survey
• 7/18 8:30am July New York Fed Business Activity Survey
• 7/18 10am July NAHB Housing Market Indexin-line
• 7/18 Manheim July Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value Index Tame
• 7/25 9am ET May S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
• 7/25 10am ET July Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
• 7/26 2pm ET July FOMC rates decision Tame
• 7/28 8:30am ET June PCETame
• 7/28 8:30am ET 2Q ECI Employment Cost IndexTame
• 7/28 10am ET July Final U Mich 1-yr inflationTame

Key data from June

• 6/1 10am ET May ISM Manufacturing Tame
• 6/2 8:30am ET May Jobs report Tame
• 6/5 10am ET May ISM Services Tame
• 6/7 Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index May Tame
• 6/9 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker April Tame
• 6/13 8:30am ET May CPI Tame
• 6/14 8:30am ET May PPI Tame
• 6/14 2pm ET April FOMC rates decisionTame
• 6/16 10am ET U. Mich. May prelim 1-yr inflation Tame
• 6/27 9am ET April S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
• 6/27 10am ET June Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
• 6/30 8:30am ET May PCE Tame
• 6/30 10am ET June Final U Mich 1-yr inflation Tame

Key data from May

• 5/1 10am ET April ISM Manufacturing (PMIs turn up) Positive inflection
• 5/2 10am ET Mar JOLTS Softer than consensus
• 5/3 10am ET April ISM Services Tame
• 5/3 2pm Fed May FOMC rates decision Dovish
• 5/5 8:30am ET April Jobs report Tame
• 5/5 Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index April Tame
• 5/8 2pm ET April 2023 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey Better than feared
• 5/10 8:30am ET April CPI Tame
• 5/11 8:30am ET April PPI Tame
• 5/12 10am ET U. Mich. April prelim 1-yr inflation Tame
• 5/12 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker April Tame
• 5/24 2pm ET May FOMC minutes Dovish
• 5/26 8:30am ET PCE April Tame
• 5/26 10am ET U. Mich. April final 1-yr inflation Tame
• 5/31 10am ET JOLTS April job openings