First Word

New all-time S&P 500 highs likely in January (if not Friday 12/29). However, 4 reasons we then see a pullback around Feb/March 2024. Small-caps likely lead in 1H24.

The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members

We discuss: To us, it is only a matter of days before we make new all-time highs.  But then we likely consolidate.  Small-caps likely outperform in 1H24.  We discuss the multiple reasons we expect large-caps to have a pullback in 1H24.

Please click below to view our Macro Minute (Duration: 4:10).

The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members

With 1 trading day left in 2023, the S&P 500 is on track to gain >25%. One might be surprised to learn this is only ranks as the 25th best year (yep) in the past 125 years. Consensus expected a far worse outcome (hard landing and inflation fighting for a decade). So, we are thankful to our clients who supported us through this challenging but ultimately rewarding year.

The S&P 500 is now within 1% of the all-time high of 4.801 but has not yet exceeded this level. Since 1950, there are 11 instances where the S&P 500 fell 20% and then climbed to within 1% of its prior all-time high:- 11 of 11 times, the S&P 500 quickly made an all-time high- median time is 7 days and as long as 20 trading days, meaning new highs by Jan 2024- repeat, the market always soon made an all-time high Did markets then make further gains? The median max gain over...

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