First Word

A "hot" August CPI does not end equities, but it will raise the level of skepticism of Fed progress. Of last 6 CPI "misses" (hot), equities gained 4 of 6 times.

The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members

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We discuss how consensus is now leaning towards a "hot" Aug core CPI.  This does not necessarily hurt equites as of the last 6 "hot prints" stocks rallied 4 of the 6.  Plus, it all comes down to details and how bonds react (Duration: 5:43).

The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members

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August CPI is released Wednesday morning at 8:30am ET. Reviewing Street consensus (see below), it seems like the Street is ready for a "hot" CPI print, above the Core MoM consensus of +0.20%. In fact, the closely watched Goldman Sachs estimate is +0.24% Core.

On the surface, this feels like a possible disappointment, because this breaks the string of 2 consecutive months of Core CPI MoM of +0.16% or lower. A +0.24% MoM is still impressive because it is 2.88% annualized, but we all know that markets care about "on the margin" and this, on the margin, is a miss. Our data science team, led by "tireless Ken," looked at the last 10 CPI prints and subsequent equity market reaction:- 6 saw Core CPI MoM "hotter" than consensus (above) +0.01% to +0.10%- 4 of 6 times, equities gained in the following week- 5 of 6 times, equities g...

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