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Steep recovery in equities post-CPI/FOMC minutes sell-off shows "bears are trapped." S&P 500 has never made new lows when it recovers above 200-week moving average >15 weeks (this cycle 25 weeks and counting).

On the heels of the post-CPI/post-FOMC minutes equity sell-off Wednesday, the bearish narrative took a momentary victory dance (Fed Barkin said more to do and FOMC minutes showed staffers expect a recession). But by Thursday's close (4/13), post-soft PPI, equities pushed to one-month highs and put S&P 500 4,200 back into play near term.

The bearish thesis is largely anchored on the view a US hard landing is inevitable, following rapid Fed hikes, further solidified by the festering regional b...

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