Aftershocks part 3: Ripples still widening. Technology borrowing costs now 63bp LOWER than banks and VIX closed below 20 1st time since SVB.

It has been nearly 3 weeks since the sudden failure of SVB and the aftershocks continue. The biggest impact from the banking crisis is the market's expectations for Fed policy has legged lower -- obvious from looking at Fed Funds futures (now sees >50bp cuts by YE) and intuitively makes sense (credit tightening which is a substitute for rate hikes) and that combined with general heightened caution by consumers means inflation is set to weaken materially in the next few months.

Probab...

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