Aftershocks part 3: Ripples still widening. Technology borrowing costs now 63bp LOWER than banks and VIX closed below 20 1st time since SVB.

It has been nearly 3 weeks since the sudden failure of SVB and the aftershocks continue. The biggest impact from the banking crisis is the market's expectations for Fed policy has legged lower -- obvious from looking at Fed Funds futures (now sees >50bp cuts by YE) and intuitively makes sense (credit tightening which is a substitute for rate hikes) and that combined with general heightened caution by consumers means inflation is set to weaken materially in the next few months.

Probably obvious, but the aftershocks of the SVB failure, in our view, are the most important on the margin for markets. These ripples are widening and as we noted early in this crisis, First Republic ($FRC) is a battleground stock and already significant actions have been taken by a coalition of banks and by regulators. How the FRC situation is resolved is also important as the implications for bank equity and debt holders will become clear -- there is little doubt that depositors will have protection, but the uncertainty is really around the size of haircuts for equity and debt tranches.And the ultimate size and scope and severity of the banking crisis will determine the path of equities. Because we are in the midst of this crisis, one cannot necessarily have high conviction in either direc...

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