Even as banking crisis still expanding, FAANG/Tech nearly recovered entire 2022 losses

The scope of the banking crisis continues to edge wider, with additional regional banks seeing pressure by investors (bonds well under par) and over the weekend, a Bloomberg article noted US authorities discuss expanding emergency lending facilities to stave this off. Over the weekend, in multiple casual conversations with friends and acquaintances, so many told us they believe this is the GFC all over again. So the public is clearly rattled by the high profile bank failures and the dramatic market reactions since.

At the same time, there is a problem with this doomsayer narrative. The bank crisis started with the collapse of SVB Financial ($SIVB) on 3/10 and while bank stocks have since crumbled, this has not been the case for the broader market. As we enter the final week of March, month to date (MTD), the S&P 500 is flat and YTD +3.42%.

Our clients and many pundits say this is a bearish setup for risk assets. The relative stability of equities merely means that stocks have not fully appreciated, and therefore not discounted, the coming economic and EPS decline stemming from the bank crisis. And in their minds, the "dumb" money is holding onto stocks as the "smart" money piles into money market funds, which have now soared to $5.1 trillion, exceeding COVID p...

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