CPI re-weight makes housing + cars = 59% of Core CPI = falling inflation mid-2023. Retail, sitting on $1.8T in cash, will be the incremental buyer of equities in 2023...

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Do you want to listen to economists or to markets? Who has a better track record?

The stubborn rise in equities in 2023, in the face of skeptics citing high inflation, Fed killer, recession risks and poor EPS prospects, highlights the battle that is 2023. Do you want to listen to economists or to markets?

For much of 2022, the equity world has taken the Fed and economist arguments at face value -- inflation is persistent and risks to flaring higher are high, so the Fed will keep pushing on stock prices, until something breaks. This is gospel for many and we hear this mirrored to us countless times in the past six months.

But why are the bond market and now stock prices speaking a different tune. In fact, if you happened to watch CNBC Squawk Box this morning, there was a heated debate on the CPI report and Rick Santelli, CNBC guy, pretty much summed it up:

  • when he said "who has a better track record? economists or markets?"

I will place my bets with markets. As we have written about consistently since last Fall, the stock market has been marching to a "bull playbook" since October 12, 2022 and despite those deeming this current rise as a mere bear market rally:

Equ...
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