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Please don't ignore 6 key signals from last week... it was a "game changer" and supportive of YE rally

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Please don't ignore the 6 key signals from last week

Most of 2022 has been a cascade of ever more troubling developments, from surging inflation, Russia-Ukraine war, Fed going full Volcker, China issues and multiple seismic crypto events (terra luna, 3 Arrows, Voyager Digital, and now FTX). And this has pushed interest rates higher, panicked policymakers and punished equities. Still, equities found some sort of footing on 10/13 (day of Sept CPI) and since risen 15%.

Last week was a "game changer" in our view, principally due to the far softer and repeatable Oct CPI but there were 6 signals generated last week. Each of these 6 are why we see a far different path forward for markets:

Foremost is the positive Oct soft CPI (and repeatable) which showed a favorable break in 3 key inflationary areas: shelter/OER, medical care and goods (apparel and used cars). We expect this to be sufficient for Fed to slow pace of hikes, and possibly December 2022 may be the last hike.Second, bond volatility is collapsing ($VXTLT or $MOVE) and this is a point made repeatedly by one of macro clients (HA in NYC, who works at a major pod of macro HF). Similarly, Ton...

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