Far worse Sept CPI report, but best case scenario was "hot CPI," markets open down and close higher

The best case scenario for yesterday was "horrible CPI miss and stocks rally"

I was at two finance investor gatherings last night (midtown 5 minutes apart) and there was naturally a lot of discussion about what would be the best "case" outcome for yesterday's CPI (Sept) report. No surprise, the views ranged from "CPI below expectations and we rally" etc but the most cogent was made by a family office investor:

  • best case is "way hotter CPI print and stocks tank at open then reverse into close"
  • an example as Mark Newton, Head of Technical Strategy, likes to say "markets bottom on bad news"

Well, this is what happened.

  • futures strengthened overnight on UK Truss news
  • Sept CPI reported 8:30am ET and far stronger than expected
  • futures quickly fall 4%
  • markets open down 2.5% and rally from open
The video in this report is only accessible to members

The chart below sums up the price action yesterday. Markets managed to reverse the selling over the past 3 days. But have not recovered losses experienced over the past 6 trading session.

  • that would require a recovery to S&P 500 ~3,800
The video in this report is only accessible to members

As we highlighted earlier this week, the probabilities slightly favored a rally given investor positioning into this CPI report. As shown below:

when financial conditions (Goldman Sachs Financial Condi...

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