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Nasdaq went "no bid" on 9/13 with zero stocks advancing. 13 of 13 times, Nasdaq 100 higher median 12M gain 21%. When already >25% drawdown, median gain +64%

In 2H2022, there have been two separate days where markets saw massive declines:

  • post-Jackson Hole on 8/26
  • post-August CPI on 9/13

In both instances, equites were reacting to re-calibration of Fed expectations. That is, when investors see risk of tighter Fed, stocks have fallen in a broad retreat. The negative reaction to future Fed policy is logical.

But this does not mean stocks have to break below the June lows (sure, a retest is possible). Foremost, we view June 10, 2022 as the date of the fu...

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