Perspective on June CPI. Gasoline might be "deflationary" in July CPI if 9 prior oil declines are precedent.

This is an intraday First Word to discuss Energy upside surprise in June CPI

Gasoline might be "deflationary" in July if 9 prior oil declines are precedent

The June CPI was "ugly" and an upside surprise. The YoY was +9.1% versus consensus +8.8%.

  • Motor fuel (gasoline) was the single biggest driver of upside surprise
  • YOY: +2.3% of the +9.1%
  • MOM: +0.55% of the +1.3%
  • No surprise, this is also the single biggest driver of consumer perceptions of CPI as well

CPI: Top 20 contrib...

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