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LEAD VS LAG: Case strengthening inflationary drivers peaked ("lead"), even if CPI remains elevated ("lag") = market perception lagging

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Inflation vs Recession = Markets focus of either "half-empty" views to "worser half-empty"

Incoming data this week has pointed to a pronounced softening of economic momentum globally, and this has pushed commodity prices lower and similarly pushed down interest rates. And this has shifted market focus:

inflation vs recessiontwo paths to ruin, either inflation wrecks the economy or a recession wrecks the economyweakening incoming economic data...

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