Market hypersensitive to inflation data points... but market sees declining forward inflation

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Market likely pivots on 1 of 4 change in trends

To state the obvious (to those watching macro), Wed's April CPI print is going to be important. All markets are hyper-reactive to inflation's trajectory. And given the waterfall decline in stocks since the FOMC meeting, the market most likely to hyper-react are equities.

  • I am not sure there is a single item that matters, i.e., "core CPI month over month"
  • but given the building data points that inflation might have already peaked
  • trends in key items will matter

The market is caught in a "vortex of pain" (thanks AS) as described by one client. While stocks have been struggling for most of 2022, the waterfall collapse since the end of April has been a particularly violent scythe.

We have spent the past few days in Chicago meeting with institutional investors, and the PTSD of the past few weeks is evident. It has been particularly painful because there has been nowhere to hide. And the uncertainty weighing on markets seems insurmountable. In overly simplistic terms, there are four things plaguing visibility, and an improvement in 1 of these 4 would dramatically ease anxiety:

inflation -- key to watch is CPI as signs o...

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