On 2/24/2022, >40% of S&P 500 stocks were in a bear market = 9 of 9 times past 30 years stocks higher 12M out (ex-recession)

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STRATEGY: On 2/24/2022, > 40% of S&P 500 stocks were in a bear market = 9 of 9 times past 30 years stocks higher 12M out (ex-recession)

Credit markets and investors are still hawkish = equity markets need to discount/resolve this
The major difference in 2022 compared to the pandemic era is the bond market has become "hawkish" -- that is, the bond market is dealing with the dilemma of inflation risk, Fed "behind the curve" and the economic consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war (how large). And many of the pundits of the credit world are hawkish:

- Mohamed El-Erian says "Fed is losing credibility" and thus, leans bearish on market outlook
- Thus, the key takeaway is the credit markets are turning in a way that is a headwind for equity markets

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This market dilemma is evident if you look at the yield curve. Take a look below, it is "messed up"

- curve steep 1M to 3Y --> Fed hikes signaled
- 3Y to 10Y portion inverted --> fears of a "recession"
- 30Y less 20Y inverted --> why??

This is not a yield curve that seems to be telling one story, but multipl...

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