Click HERE to access the FSInsight COVID-19 Daily Chartbook.
We publish on a 4-day a week schedule:
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
SKIP THURSDAY
Friday
I will be on vacation from 1/17 to 1/25, a late Christmas vacation
– we will still publish our COVID-19 daily commentary (thanks tireless Ken)
– market commentary will resume 1/26
POINT 1: Daily COVID-19 cases 1,053,588, up +268,045 vs 7D ago…
Current Trends — COVID-19 cases:
- Daily cases 1,053,588 vs 785,543 7D ago, up +268,045
- 7D positivity rate 26.1% vs 28.2% 7D ago
- Hospitalized patients 142,294, down -3.2% vs 7D ago
- Daily deaths 2,290, up 33% vs 7D ago
The latest COVID daily cases came in at 1,053,588, up +268,045 vs 7D ago. Don’t be surprised by the positive 7D delta figure as it is the result of the data distortion caused by MLK Day 7D ago – only a handful of states had reported cases last Monday, so the case count 7D ago was “artificially” low. Likewise, we will see the 7D delta fall sharply today as the case count last Tuesday was “artificially” high. The overall COVID situation in the US is still improving. Another encouraging development is in “current hospitalizations”. As shown below, the number of patients currently hospitalized has also rolled over. This shows that we might have passed the worst moment of the Omicron wave. The hospitalization rate should follow the case trend. Hence, we are likely to see an accelerated decline in current hospitalization in the next 1-2 weeks.
7D delta in daily cases jumped yesterday due to the data distortion 7D ago…
As we noted above, daily cases were “artificially” low 7D ago as only a handful of states had reported COVID stats due to MLK Day holiday. And we should see the 7D delta in daily cases falls sharply today as daily cases last Tuesday were “artificially” high. The downward trends in daily cases and 7D delta should still be intact.
29 states are seeing a rise in cases while 21 states + DC are seeing cases falling or about to roll over…
*** We’ve split the “Parabolic Case Tracker” into 2 tables: one where cases are falling (or about to fall), and the other where cases are rising
for 50 US states + DC. The table for states where cases are declining is sorted by case % off of their recent peak, while the table for states where cases are rising is sorted by the current daily cases to pre-surge daily cases multiple.
- The states with higher ranks are the states that have seen a more significant decline / rise in daily cases
- We also calculated the number of days during the recent case surge
- The US as a whole, UK, and Israel are also shown at the top as a reference
Daily deaths are still rising, while positivity rates and hospitalization seem to roll over now…
Below we show the aggregate number of patients hospitalized due to COVID, daily mortality associated with COVID, and the daily positivity rate for COVID
– Net hospitalization started to roll over. And more importantly, the daily mortality did not follow the same pattern as hospitalization, which shows Omicron is less deadly compared to other variants (at least so far).
– Positivity rate finally started to fall after plateauing for two weeks. It also confirms the recent decline in daily cases.
POINT 2: VACCINE: vaccination pace has slowed recently… Still more than half of eligible people have not received their booster shots…
Current Trends — Vaccinations:
– avg 1.0 million this past week vs 1.2 million last week
– overall, 25.8% received booster doses, 63.2% fully vaccinated, 75.3% 1-dose+ received
Vaccination frontier update –> all states now near or above 80% combined penetration (vaccines + infections)
*** We’ve updated the total detected infections multiplier from 4.0x to 2.5x. The CDC changed the estimate multiplier because testing has become much better and more prevalent.
Below we sorted the states by the combined penetration (vaccinations + infections). The assumption is that a state with higher combined penetration is likely to be closer to herd immunity, and therefore, less likely to see a parabolic surge in daily cases and deaths. Please note that this “combined penetration” metric can be over 100%, as infected people could also be vaccinated (actually recommended by CDC).
– Currently, all states are near or above 90% combined penetration
– Given the 2.5x multiplier, all states besides MS, WA, OR, TX, ID, MI, MO, and GA are now above 100% combined penetration (vaccines + infections). Again, this metric can be over 100%, as infected people could also be vaccinated. But 100% combined penetration does not mean that the entire population within each state is either infected or vaccinated
There were a total of 687,043 doses administered, as reported on Monday. The daily number of vaccines administered has been down over the past week. The improvement in the case trend could play a role in influencing people’s willingness/urgency to get vaccinated. But two recent studies published by the CDC (COVID-19 Incidence and Death Rates Among Unvaccinated and Fully Vaccinated Adults with and Without Booster Doses During Periods of Delta and Omicron Variant Emergence, and Effectiveness of a Third Dose of mRNA Vaccines Against COVID-19–Associated Emergency Department and Urgent Care Encounters and Hospitalizations Among Adults During Periods of Delta and Omicron Variant Predominance) reiterated the importance of being vaccinated and receiving a booster dose. Therefore, we believe the daily number of vaccines administered remains the most important metric to track.
Below we plotted the number of people who are eligible for the booster dose and the number of people who received the booster dose over time. As you can see, more than half of eligible people have yet received their booster dose (173 million eligible, 85 million received). Hence, to convince these people to receive their booster dose remains the key.
This is the state by state data below, showing information for individuals with one dose, two doses, and booster dose.
In total, 535 million vaccine doses have been administered across the country. Specifically, 250 million Americans (75% of US population) have received at least 1 dose of the vaccine. 210 million Americans (63% of US population) are fully vaccinated. And 85 million Americans (26% of US population) received their booster shot.
POINT 3: Tracking the seasonality of COVID-19
***We’ve updated the seasonality tracker to show figures from the last 9 months, from this calendar day, in each of the last two years***
As evident by trends in 2020 and 2021, seasonality appears to play an important role in the daily cases, hospitalization, and deaths trends. Therefore, we think there might be a strong argument that COVID-19 is poised to become a seasonal virus.
The possible explanations for the seasonality we observed are:
– Outdoor Temperature: increasing indoor activities in the South vs increasing outdoor activities in the northeast during the Summer
– “Air Conditioning” Season: similar to “outdoor temperature”, more “AC” usage might facilitate the spread of the virus indoors
– Opposite effects hold true in the winter
CASES
It seems as if the main factor contributing to current case trends right now is outdoor temperature. During the Summer, outdoor activities are generally increased in the northern states as the weather becomes nicer. In southern states, on the other hand, it becomes too hot and indoor activities are increased. As such, northern state cases didn’t spike much during Summer 2020 while southern state cases did. Currently, northern state cases are showing a slight spike, especially when compared to Summer 2020. This could be attributed to the introduction of the more transmissible Delta variant and the lifting of restrictions combined with pent up demand for indoor activities.
HOSPITALIZATION
Current hospitalizations appear to be similar or less than Summer 2020 rates in most states. This is likely due to increased vaccination rates and the vaccine’s ability to reduce the severity of the virus.
DEATHS
Current death rates appear to be scattered compared to 2020 rates. This is likely due to varying vaccination rates in each state. States with higher vaccination rates seem to have lower death rates given the vaccine’s ability to reduce the severity of the virus; states with lower vaccination rates seem to have higher death rates.
