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USA hospitalization rates are rolling over hard = sign worst of Omicron severity over? Equities have bottomed well ahead of hospitalization peaks

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STRATEGY: USA hospitalization rates are rolling over hard = sign worst of Omicron severity over? Base case remains S&P 500 4,800 by YEOmicron severity already peaked? USA hospitalization rate rolling over hard
The incremental hospitalization rate for USA is rolling over hard. This is measured as "net increase in hospitalizations" (7D avg) divided by "new cases" (7D avg). This measures the incremental utilization of hospital resources for a given level of cases.

- Delta wave hospitalization rate peaked at 2.9%
- Omicron peaked (so far) at 0.8% on 12/15
- It is now 0.3%, a surest sign the severity wave of Omicron might already have peaked

COVID-19 is unpredictable and thus, any comments we make could easily be changed by incoming facts and data. But the rollover in hospitalization rates is the surest sign, in our view, that the "hysteria" phase of this Omicron wave has peaked. After all, as many have stated, cases is not the best measure of this current wave.

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