12 states + PR reported 4,248 new cases, daily vaccinations at 582,118 (-48,137 vs. 7D ago)

Click HERE to access the FSInsight COVID-19 Daily Chartbook.

We are shifting to a 4-day a week publication schedule:

  • Monday
  • Tuesday
  • Wednesday
  • SKIP THURSDAY
  • Friday

HEADS UP: I am taking a vacation this week, so there will not be "scheduled" market commentary July 12th to July 16th.  COVID-19 daily updates will be sent, without market color.  But if there is significant market turmoil, we will do INTRADAY commentary.  


POINT 1: Daily COVID-19 cases 4,248, up +264 (ex-FL&NE) vs 7D ago... Hospitalization turning upwards...
_____________________________

Current Trends -- COVID-19 cases:
- Daily cases 4,248 vs 6,332 7D ago, down -2,084
- Daily cases ex-FL&NE 4,248 vs 3,984 7D ago, up +264
- 7D positivity rate 3.5% vs 2.8% 7D ago
- Hospitalized patients 16,719, up +16% vs 7D ago
- Daily deaths 219, down -3.3% vs 7D ago
_____________________________

*** Florida and Nebraska stopped publishing daily COVID stats updates on 6/4 and 6/30, respectively. We switched to use CDC surveillance data as the substitute. However, since CDC surveillance data is subject to a one to two day lag, we added a "US ex-FL&NE" in our daily cases and 7D delta sections in order to demonstrate a more comparable COVID development.

On Sunday, 12 states and Puerto Rico reported a total of 4,428 new cases. Each of these 12 states + PR reported higher daily cases than 7D ago except Missouri. The 7D delta in daily cases has been trending higher since Independence Day even though the data distortion due to the holiday partially impacted the data quality.

Currently, TN, OK, AR, MO, AL, NV, and SC are the states with the largest increase in daily cases compared to their recent lows (as shown in the "parabolic" tracker below), while all 7 states except NV have less than 50% of their populations vaccinated with at least one dose. As we noted previously, vaccine penetration appears to have some causal relationship with the case trend. Therefore, the COVID developments in these states along with the other low vaccinated states (such as MS, LA, GA, ID, WY, ND, IN) are worth watching.

7D delta in daily cases has been slowly rising...
As shown in the chart below, the 7D delta has been distorted significantly due to Independence Day. The 7D avg (blue dash line) provides us with a better view of the trend. Overall, the 7D delta has been gradually rising over the past two weeks. But the good news is the rise is more "linear" and less" parabolic." However, it is still too early to conclude if the US will or will not see a parabolic surge in daily cases. We will be closely watching the relevant data.

New case surge tracker in order to identify the states that have seen the largest case surge recently.
Below, we added a new section called "Parabolic Case Surge Tracker" to monitor the possible parabolic surge in daily case figures. In the table, we included both the vaccine penetration and the recent case trend for 50 US states + DC. The table is sorted by the multiple of their current daily cases divided by their recent low in daily cases.

- The states with higher ranks are the states that have seen a more significant rise in daily cases
- We also calculated the number of days between now and the recent low date - a state with high multiple but low number of days since low represents the state is facing a relatively rapid surge in daily cases.
- The US as a whole, UK, and Israel are also shown at the top as a reference

Current hospitalization and positivity rate are rising while daily deaths continue to fall...
Below we show the aggregate number of patients hospitalized due to COVID, daily mortality associated with COVID, and the daily positivity rate for COVID. As you can see, all three metrics are at their all-time lows since the start of the pandemic. However, current hospitalization and positivity rate are clearly turning upwards, while daily deaths remain on a downtrend. If the COVID related hospitalizations continue to rise, we could see the daily deaths start to turn upwards soon.

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