FLASH: COVID-19 UPDATE: Daily cases at 58,468 (+2,869 vs. 7D ago), daily vaccinations at 2,683,728 (vs. 2,474,745 7D ago). AL, AR, CA, CT, GA, NY, WI to ease COVID restrictions.

COVID-19 remains a global crisis and we realize that many people need to keep up with COVID-19 developments, particularly since we are moving into the more critical stage (“restart economy”), so feel free to share our commentary to anyone who has interest. 


VACATION ALERT!

This week (3/15-3/19), Spring Break arrives for tireless Ken and for me.  

– Daily COVID-19 data updates is being sent, handled by data science team
– But no strategy commentary, nor analysis.
– If there are breaking market moves, we will send out FLASH INTRADAY as needed

END OF VACATION ALERT!

Click HERE to access the FSInsight COVID-19 Daily Chartbook.

POINT 1: Daily COVID-19 cases 58,468, +2,869 vs 7D ago…

_____________________________

Current Trends — COVID-19 cases: 
– Daily cases    58,468 vs 55,599 7D ago, up 2,869
– 7D positivity rate   4.4% vs 4.5% 7D ago
– Hospitalized patients   34,622 down -5.1% vs 7D ago
– Daily deaths    1,150, down -7.4% vs 7D ago
_____________________________



– The latest COVID-19 daily cases came in at 58,468 up 2,869 vs 7D ago.  
– Despite returning to a negative 7D delta in daily cases yesterday, the 7D delta has once again become positive.

FLASH: COVID-19 UPDATE: Daily cases at 58,468 (+2,869 vs. 7D ago), daily vaccinations at 2,683,728 (vs. 2,474,745 7D ago). AL, AR, CA, CT, GA, NY, WI to ease COVID restrictions.


Source: Fundstrat and state health departments



7D delta returns to positive…
Despite returning to a negative 7D delta in daily cases yesterday, the 7D delta has once again become positive.

 

FLASH: COVID-19 UPDATE: Daily cases at 58,468 (+2,869 vs. 7D ago), daily vaccinations at 2,683,728 (vs. 2,474,745 7D ago). AL, AR, CA, CT, GA, NY, WI to ease COVID restrictions.


Source: Fundstrat and state health departments   



US hospitalization still rolling over … and even US deaths seem to be rolling over…
Below we show the aggregate patients who are currently hospitalized due to COVID. It has fallen significantly from the wave 3 peak.

FLASH: COVID-19 UPDATE: Daily cases at 58,468 (+2,869 vs. 7D ago), daily vaccinations at 2,683,728 (vs. 2,474,745 7D ago). AL, AR, CA, CT, GA, NY, WI to ease COVID restrictions.


Source: Fundstrat and state health departments


 

FLASH: COVID-19 UPDATE: Daily cases at 58,468 (+2,869 vs. 7D ago), daily vaccinations at 2,683,728 (vs. 2,474,745 7D ago). AL, AR, CA, CT, GA, NY, WI to ease COVID restrictions.


Source: Fundstrat and state health departments


 

FLASH: COVID-19 UPDATE: Daily cases at 58,468 (+2,869 vs. 7D ago), daily vaccinations at 2,683,728 (vs. 2,474,745 7D ago). AL, AR, CA, CT, GA, NY, WI to ease COVID restrictions.


Source: Fundstrat and state health departments


 

FLASH: COVID-19 UPDATE: Daily cases at 58,468 (+2,869 vs. 7D ago), daily vaccinations at 2,683,728 (vs. 2,474,745 7D ago). AL, AR, CA, CT, GA, NY, WI to ease COVID restrictions.


Source: Fundstrat and state health departments

 




POINT 2: VACCINE: 32 states (+1 from Sunday)  near ~60% infected + vaccinated

_____________________________

Current Trends — Vaccinations: 
Vaccinations ramping steadily
– avg 2.5 million this past week vs 2.2 million last week
– overall, 12.3% fully vaccinated, 22.6% 1-dose+ received
_____________________________



Vaccination frontier update –> 32 states now near or above 60% combined penetration (vaccines + infections)
Below we sorted the states by the combined penetration (vaccinations + infections).  As we commented in the past, the key figure is the combined value >60%, which is presumably near herd immunity.  That is, the combined value of infections + vaccinations as % population > 60%.

– Currently, 32 states (see below) are basically all at this level
– So slowly, the US is getting to that threshold of presumable herd immunity



 

FLASH: COVID-19 UPDATE: Daily cases at 58,468 (+2,869 vs. 7D ago), daily vaccinations at 2,683,728 (vs. 2,474,745 7D ago). AL, AR, CA, CT, GA, NY, WI to ease COVID restrictions.


Source: CDC and Fundstrat


Collectively, these 32 states represent about 59% of the US population.  Now while it is more than half of the states, it is also a similar share of the population.  As the chart below highlights, the US is seeing steady forward progress and this figure continues to rise steadily.

FLASH: COVID-19 UPDATE: Daily cases at 58,468 (+2,869 vs. 7D ago), daily vaccinations at 2,683,728 (vs. 2,474,745 7D ago). AL, AR, CA, CT, GA, NY, WI to ease COVID restrictions.


Source: CDC and Fundstrat



There was a total of 2,683,728 doses administered, up from 2,474,745 doses 7D ago. The pace overall is steadily rising, as evidenced by the 7D moving average (see blue line).

FLASH: COVID-19 UPDATE: Daily cases at 58,468 (+2,869 vs. 7D ago), daily vaccinations at 2,683,728 (vs. 2,474,745 7D ago). AL, AR, CA, CT, GA, NY, WI to ease COVID restrictions.


Source: CDC and Fundstrat 


~92.1% of the US has seen 1-dose penetration >20%
To better illustrate the actual footprint of the US vaccination effort, we have a time series showing the percent of the US with at least 5%/10%/15% of its residents fully vaccinated, displayed as the orange line on the chart. Currently, all US states have seen 5% of their residents fully vaccinated.   However, when looking at the percentage of the US with at least 10% and 15% of its residents fully vaccinated, this figures are 92.1% and 3.5%, respectively.


– While all US states have seen vaccine penetration >10%, 100% of them have seen 1 dose penetration >15% and 92.1% of them have seen 1 dose penetration > 20%.
– All of the US has at least 5% of its residents fully vaccinated, and now 97.8% of US has fully vaccinated >10%
– This figure is rising sharply now and could rise even more rapidly as the JNJ’s 1-dose vaccines roll out.
– the takeaway is the vaccination efforts are unlikely to be having much of an effect on case figures, currently.

FLASH: COVID-19 UPDATE: Daily cases at 58,468 (+2,869 vs. 7D ago), daily vaccinations at 2,683,728 (vs. 2,474,745 7D ago). AL, AR, CA, CT, GA, NY, WI to ease COVID restrictions.


Source: CDC and Fundstrat 



This is the state by state data below, showing information for states with one dose and for those with two doses.

FLASH: COVID-19 UPDATE: Daily cases at 58,468 (+2,869 vs. 7D ago), daily vaccinations at 2,683,728 (vs. 2,474,745 7D ago). AL, AR, CA, CT, GA, NY, WI to ease COVID restrictions.


Source: CDC and Fundstrat 


The ratio of vaccinations/ daily confirmed cases is generally trending higher (red line is 7D moving avg) and this is the most encouraging statistic. 

– the 7D moving average is about ~50 for the past few days
– this means 50 vaccines dosed for every 1 confirmed case

This figure is rising nicely and likely surges in the coming weeks

FLASH: COVID-19 UPDATE: Daily cases at 58,468 (+2,869 vs. 7D ago), daily vaccinations at 2,683,728 (vs. 2,474,745 7D ago). AL, AR, CA, CT, GA, NY, WI to ease COVID restrictions.


Source: CD and Fundstrat


In total, about 75 million Americans have received at least 1 dose of a vaccine.  This is a good pace and as we noted previously, implies 30% of the population by April.  

FLASH: COVID-19 UPDATE: Daily cases at 58,468 (+2,869 vs. 7D ago), daily vaccinations at 2,683,728 (vs. 2,474,745 7D ago). AL, AR, CA, CT, GA, NY, WI to ease COVID restrictions.


Source: CDC and Fundstrat




POINT 3: Tracking “un-restricted” and “restriction-lifted” states
We are changing Point #3 to focus primarily on tracking the lifting of restrictions, as states begin to ease various mandates.  Keep in mind, easing/lifting restrictions can take multiple forms:

– easing indoor capacity
– opening theaters, gyms, salons, saloons
– eliminating capacity restrictions
– eliminating mask mandates

So there is a spectrum of approaches.  Our team is listing 3 tiers of states and these are shown below.  

– states that eased in 2020: AK, OK, MO, FL, TN
– states that eased start 2021 to now: SD, ND, NB, ID, MT, IA, NC, MS, SC, AZ, TX, MD
– states that announced future easing dates: GA, NY, WI, AR, CA, AL, CT


GROUP 1:  States that eased restrictions in 2020…
The daily case trends in these states is impressive and it is difficult to say that lifting restrictions has actually caused a new wave of cases.  Rather, the case trends in these states look like other states.

FLASH: COVID-19 UPDATE: Daily cases at 58,468 (+2,869 vs. 7D ago), daily vaccinations at 2,683,728 (vs. 2,474,745 7D ago). AL, AR, CA, CT, GA, NY, WI to ease COVID restrictions.


FLASH: COVID-19 UPDATE: Daily cases at 58,468 (+2,869 vs. 7D ago), daily vaccinations at 2,683,728 (vs. 2,474,745 7D ago). AL, AR, CA, CT, GA, NY, WI to ease COVID restrictions.




GROUP 2: States that eased restrictions in 2021 to now…
Similar to the list of states above, the daily case trends in these states is impressive and it is difficult to say that lifting restrictions has actually caused a new wave of cases.  

– we have previously written about how ND and SD, in particular, have seen an utter obliteration of COVID-19 cases in those states
– that seems to be a function of vaccine penetration + infection penetration, leading to something akin to “herd immunity”

FLASH: COVID-19 UPDATE: Daily cases at 58,468 (+2,869 vs. 7D ago), daily vaccinations at 2,683,728 (vs. 2,474,745 7D ago). AL, AR, CA, CT, GA, NY, WI to ease COVID restrictions.


FLASH: COVID-19 UPDATE: Daily cases at 58,468 (+2,869 vs. 7D ago), daily vaccinations at 2,683,728 (vs. 2,474,745 7D ago). AL, AR, CA, CT, GA, NY, WI to ease COVID restrictions.




GROUP 3: States that announced plans ease restrictions in 2021…
These states have upcoming dates to ease restrictions.  The dates are indicated on each chart.  The cases trends in these states have been mostly positive, with perhaps the exception of NY state:

– NY state case levels seem awfully stubborn at these high levels
– weather is improving in NY area, so if weather has any effect on virus transmission, it should slow cases

FLASH: COVID-19 UPDATE: Daily cases at 58,468 (+2,869 vs. 7D ago), daily vaccinations at 2,683,728 (vs. 2,474,745 7D ago). AL, AR, CA, CT, GA, NY, WI to ease COVID restrictions.


FLASH: COVID-19 UPDATE: Daily cases at 58,468 (+2,869 vs. 7D ago), daily vaccinations at 2,683,728 (vs. 2,474,745 7D ago). AL, AR, CA, CT, GA, NY, WI to ease COVID restrictions.





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