COVID-19 UPDATE: Positives over weekend. Sub-100K cases. Phase I drug EXO-C24 cures COVID 3-5 days, potential major breakthrough. Of 10 key 2021 macro drivers, 8 of 10 likely to support higher P/E in 2021... creating...

Click HERE to access the FSInsight COVID-19 Daily Chartbook.

 

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STRATEGY: Of 10 key 2021 macro drivers, 8 of 10 likely to support higher P/E in 2021...  a tailwind for upside surprise 
Multiple positives COVID-19 developments over the weekend...
It was mostly over the weekend, there were several positive developments over the weekend:

- US COVID-19 cases fell to 90,780, the first sub-100,000 since Wave 3 started
- EXO-CD24 in a Phase I trial in Tel Aviv shown to cure COVID-19 in 29 or 30 cases (see Point #3), thanks AR+RJ and SJ for flagging this.
- Daily US vaccinations reached 2 million per day (past 2 days)
- Vaccine "boost" not even kicking in yet -- only 2.6% of US received 2 doses (per data compiled by tireless Ken)

So you can see, multiple positive developments over the weekend.  A possible cure!  Sub-100,000 cases?  
- as we commented last week, at this pace of decline (-25k to -30k vs 7D ago), we could see sub-50,000 cases in two weeks
- vaccinations will "boost" this figure as only 2.6% of US citizens have 2 doses but could be 10% or more in two weeks

The first drug that seems to result in an actual COVID-19 cure...
Over this weekend, results of Phase I trial of a drug currently named EXO-CD24 developed by the Tel Aviv Ichilov Medical Center (thanks AR+RJ in NYC and SF in Little Rock).  Below is the summary key points:

- completed Phase 1 trial at Tel Aviv Ichilov Medical Center
- cured 29 of 30 recipients within 3-5 days
- all 30 recovered after originally developing moderate to severe COVID-19
- mechanism is fighting cytokine storm using a protein called CD24
- product is inhaled

Source:  https://www.timesofisrael.com/new-israeli-drug-cured-moderate-to-serious-covid-cases-within-days-hospital/

With only 2.6% of US receiving two doses -- suggesting fall in US cases not reflecting vaccinations
Given that only 2.6% of the US has received two doses, it is unlikely the recent plunge in US cases stems from vaccinations. 

- This figure is only >5% (2 doses) is a more 0.8%
- Virtually none of the US has any geography benefitting from vaccine penetration

This is actually good news, as this suggests that most of the decline in the US cases stems from factors not stemming from vaccination efforts.  Thus, the boost from vaccine penetration should be seen in the coming weeks.

Source: CDC, COVID-19 Tracking Project and Fundstrat 

Daily vaccination doses are ramping up... ~2 million per day now
We are still "growing pains" in daily doses of vaccines, and this progress will not be linear.   As shown:

- Daily vaccinations in the US were 2,043,677 improved from the abysmal 1,454,950 last Sunday
- This only reflects 2 approved vaccines.  But within the coming weeks, it is expected that both JNJ and Astra-Zeneca would both receive EUA approval
- Will the US be vaccinating at a 4 million per day pace in March-April? Maybe.  Wow

 

Source: CDC and Fundstrat

STRATEGY: Super Bowl indicator, NFC win is better = Tampa Bay win
Super Bowl 55 is last night.  And as many of you might be aware, there is actually a Super Bowl indicator for equities.  This is very likely merely statistical noise, but take a look at equity returns, depending on which conference wins the Super Bowl.

- AFC wins --> 7.1%, 65% win-ratio
- NFC wins --> 10.2%, 79% win-ratio

Interestingly, NFC wins seem to be associated with better outcomes for stocks.  So, just to remind everyone in Super Bowl LV:

- Kansas City Chiefs          AFC
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers  NFC

Therefore, a win led by Tampa Bay would be good for equities.  Do we believe this is just chance?  Of course, it is rational to purely attribute this to statistical noise -- but then again, equity markets are mysterious, so maybe there is something to this??

 

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