COVID-19 UPDATE: Introducing model to track "herd immunity" frontier (vaccine + infections). UK variant spotted in NY for first time.

Click HERE to access the FSInsight COVID-19 Daily Chartbook.

STRATEGY: Herd Immunity "frontier" = 60% combined vaccines + infections
Vaccine <--> Social Distance "trade-off" improves throughout 2021 = Vaccine wins
In 2021, we believe one of the key milestones is reaching the "herd immunity" frontier.  This is when the combined value of vaccinations + infections = 60%, or a level where infection rates would slow dramatically.  This is a "race against time" of vaccine deployment versus case spread.  

- initially, infections naturally spread faster given Winter season + holiday + COVID-19 fatigue
- and initial vaccine deployments sluggish
- but vaccine logistics will improve and thus, COVID-19 presumably reaches its end point

Our data science team has created a model to track vaccine doses administered, using data provided by the CDC (see discussion point #2).  Ultimately, the key is seeing which states reach this "herd immunity" frontier (see chart below), where the combined value = 60%.  So far, none of the states are close, although perhaps ND/SD are the closest.

The video in this report is only accessible to members
Source: CDC and Fundstrat  The pace of rolling out the vaccinations is well behind the initial targets of Operation Warp Speed, which targeted delivering 40 million doses before YE 2020 (20 mi...

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