COVID-19 UPDATE (ELECTION EDITION): Election night -- betting markets flip to Trump. Cyclical portfolio for Biden (23 stocks) vs Trump (27 stocks). New study affirms T-cell immunity

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STRATEGY: Cyclical trade: Trump vs Biden portfolios.  Trump favored
The focus of this note is the 2020 Election results.  We will be sending this note without having any conclusions on the winner of the White House and the outcome for the Senate.  Polls and the media have been calling for a Biden/Blue wave landslide.  And early voting results so far, are not really showing this.  

In fact, betting markets have completely flipped with Trump favored at 69.5%.  

- Equity futures are up and NASDAQ >3%
- We think strongest rally would be a "surprise" Trump win and equities rally 15%-17% into YE
- This looks like the scenario at the moment

The video in this report is only accessible to members
Source: electionbettingodds.comTo me, the biggest takeaway is the massive, absolutely massive failure of polling.  This is a big money business and is used to influence behavior and financial markets.  And these polls have been dead wrong again -- an indictment of polling.  Our Washington Strategist, Tom Block, has not trusted polls in the world of cell phones (geolocation) and social media.  How can all these "live polls" get 1,500 results per week?  This implies 33% US contacted during a 33-week election cy...

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