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STRATEGY: America at a decision point as COVID-19 cases rise -- worst policy decision is "doing nothing"
The worst thing for policymakers to do is nothing...

COVID-19 cases are rising again in the US.  This is not only confirmed by the sustained rise in cases across the US.  But as we discuss below, the fact that COVID-19 patients hospitalized is up 8% in the past two weeks.  The fact that cases are rising is not the real issue, in my view, it is really two orders of effect:

- first, will cases rise exponentially, ala IHME's view of a deadly winter second wave?
- second, what actions should policymakers take?

As Teddy Roosevelt, the US 26th President, famously said:

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In other words, we want to make sure US policy makers don't do the "worst thing" which, I believe, is "doing nothing".  I think it will be important for federal, state and local governments to take some mitigating actions.  I am not in favor of economic shutdowns, and even point to NYC as an example of how that will not help (NYC has been mostly shut, and cases are inching up).  Rather, it probably becomes an issue of making sure American's take better individual action.  As Dr. Charles Murray of IHME stated, the ...

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