Click HERE to access the FSInsight COVID-19 Daily Chartbook.
STRATEGY: Likelihood of another US shutdown unlikely… under Trump
The likelihood of another economic shutdown is lower under Trump. I am not stating this to reflect my political views, but rather, mirror what have been obvious policy positions by both Trump and Biden.
And if I had to unify the incoming news flow, it is of possible policy over-reaction to COVID-19. The UK announced some strict measures to contain the rising spread, along with a dire death warning. And yesterday, the tristate coalition added Rhode Island, among 4 other states falling under a travel advisory. Rhode Island? The state has a positivity rate of 1.7% and is widely cited as a model state for containment.
Plus, Rhode Island borders CT. This must feel like “betrayal” for Rhode Island.
But many companies on CNBC yesterday also noted that it would be catastrophic for the US to enter another broad shutdown. And I agree. But it would be necessary if COVID-19 were spreading at an uncontained pace. So, we highlight a few things in this commentary.
– US cases are indeed on the downtrend, with declines accelerating again (vs 7D ago)
– tireless Ken looked at where US flu season starts — surprise. It starts in Southeast week 31 (August 4) and week 36 in Northeast.
– A few pieces highlighting colleges seeing many cases but zero hospitalizations — important to keep in mind
POINT 1: Daily cases resume downtrend again, 32,775 down -1,725 vs 7D ago
As we commented over the last few days, the downtrend in US cases is resuming as US cases came in at 32,775 which is down -1,725 vs 7D ago. As shown below, the decline in US cases is accelerating to the downside.
– this bolsters our view that the rise in the past week was a “head fake” stemming from the artificially suppressed Labor Day week data.
Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project
This week gives us a clearer picture…
Again, the daily change vs 7D ago, in our view, is the leading indicator as it is what influences the 7D moving average. The 7D delta turned down on Monday and again yesterday, reversing 7days of gains. This is much clearer in the visual below. The 7D delta peaked last week and turned negative this week and is accelerating to the downside.
Source: COVID-19 Tracking and Fundstrat
The overall increase from the top 6 states was quite modest yesterday.
– top 6 states +1,669
– bottom 6 states -3,003
So you can it is accelerating to the downside.
Source: COVID-19 Tracking and Fundstrat
POINT 2: Believe or not, US flu season actually starts in the Southeast… Yup
Flu season is coming…
When I think of flu season, I generally thought this was something that only those in the “northern climes” of the US experienced. Growing up in Michigan, I had the flu, or someone I know, all the time and living in NYC, same thing. And with flu season approaching, I asked our data science team, led by tireless Ken, to identify when and where flu season starts in the US.
I was shocked.
Flu season actually starts in the Southeastern region of the US. Yup. Think, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Alabama. Take a look at this seasonal flu map presented by the University of Chicago.
– each row is a different season
– each column is 3-week intervals
– notice how flu starts and in heaviest in the Southeast?
Wut?
Source: elifesciences.org
We are watching the Southeast to monitor what to expect for the US flu season…
Tireless Ken collected flu season data for various states — specifically, patient visits for influenza-like illness. We plotted 7 states and the composite for each state based on the last 9 years (2011-2019).
The 5 states are:
Northeast NY, NJ, CT
Southeast GA, AL, MS, LA
Florida does not report this data.
If you squint, you can see that flu season does indeed start in the Southeast.
Source: Fundstrat
Flu season starts in the Southeast 5 weeks before the Northeast…
Ken also created a composite of the Northeast and the Southeast below. And this makes it far clearer.
– Flu season in the Southeast starts Week 31 (calendar year), or August 4
– Flu season in the NY tristate starts Week 36, or Sept 8
The flu season starts 5 weeks earlier in the Southeast.
And to repeat…the Southern hemisphere had a mild flu season…
Last week, we highlighted again about the unusually mild flu season (we wrote about this a few weeks ago) in the Southern hemisphere and the most recent is from economist.com. The title of their article – “The southern hemisphere skipped flu season in 2020”
But their charts really speak for themselves. The flu season in these 6 nations has been extremely mild.
– Why?
– this likely results from the mitigation steps associated with COVID-19 reducing the R0 of the flu season.
– hopefully, everyone is getting their flu shot now
Source: Economist
POINT 3: Are policy makers over-reacting?
NY/NJ/CT add 5 states to travel advisory, totaling 33 states total…
The tristate coalition added 5 states to its travel advisory list. Residents of these states are required to quarantine 14 days if visiting the tri-state area. This rationale of the plan is sound, to the extent that it minimizes risk, but does also rely on a lot of self-reporting. The criteria for states on this list are based on 7D rolling averages. And positivity rate >10% or more than 10 cases per 100,000 residents, triggers this advisory.
However, we wonder if the new list of 5 added states reflects possible over-sensitivity. The states added are:
– Arizona,
– Minnesota,
– Nevada,
– Wyoming, and
– Rhode Island
Of the 5 states, I am pretty surprised Rhode Island is on the list.
Source: NY Gov office
Below is the case data and positivity rate for Rhode Island. The state has been widely praised for its containment success. And while it has many universities, the state has not seen a big resurgence.
– the positivity rate in the state is 1.7%
Yet, it is on the advisory list. This is because Rhode Island has ~1 million residents. So, cases >100 will trigger the NY tristate advisory. That can easily happen on a college campus.
– Doesn’t this seem borderline over-reaction?
Source: Rhode Island Health Dept
Below is a tweet by Michael Burry. You may recognize his name from the GFC, or if you read/watched the Big Short. He is a well-regarded thinker. And he makes a good point. There are tons of detected cases in colleges, but essentially zero hospitalizations. A few of our clients shared with us similar comments and hot takes.
– Of the 48,299 cases in colleges, there are zero deaths and 2 hospitalizations.
– Wow
Source: twitter
