COVID-19 UPDATE: Daily cases fall over the weekend and daily cases could be ~37,500-39,000 Monday, or 50% off highs

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STRATEGY: High-yield sees record issuance volume last week = positive for equities
The positive trends in COVID-19 daily cases continued over the weekend.  We saw Sunday new daily cases fall to 41,984 and this is sharply lower than a week ago.

- This fall in cases happened despite record CA backlog
- plus, Tarrant County, TX reported ~1,800 cases in backlog.
- TX is the only state with >100 daily new cases vs 7D ago

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Source: COVID-19 Tracking ProjectDaily cases tend to be lower Monday (see above) and we think daily cases could fall to 37,500 to 39,000 this week.  That is a major milestone and if we see this sub-40,000 level of cases Monday, it will validate that the COVID-19 June-July surge is now in full retreat.We have written extensively about our view that high-yield bonds are a virtual leading indicator for stocks and the key metrics that we watch are:- spreads rally = positive P/E expansion- strong issuance = strong risk appetite = positive for stocksDespite the concerns about progress around new fiscal stimulus from Washington and the rise of bond yields, demand for high-yield bonds remains very strong.  High-yield bond issuance issued $19.9 billion in bonds, which is the 4th largest on re...

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