COVID-19 UPDATE: The decline in USA cases is accelerating. Epicenter stocks rallied 20 days after cases peaked in April. 20 stocks

Click HERE to access the FSInsight COVID-19 Daily Chartbook.

In markets, investors often say "early is wrong."

COVID-19 cases have definitely peaked.  Using today's data (from tireless ken), the 7D delta is -15,492.  This is a massive acceleration to the downside.

But as we discuss below, when cases peaked in late April, it took 20 days before the epicenter stocks started their massive 3,000bp outperformance rally (over 10 days).  If cases peaked July 24th (which it looks definitive), the 20th day is August 14th.

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Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project


So if history is an analog, next week is the week we could see a monstrous rally in epicenter stocks.


STRATEGY: Epicenter outperformance started May 13th, 20 days after the daily cases peaked.
We want to revisit something we flagged back in March.  Since 1920, every stock market decline >35% saw a symmetric price recovery.  In other words, the faster the markets fall, the faster the markets recover, and the ratio is 2.5X.  Given the speed of 2020, this implied making new highs before the end of the Summer.

- Like the precedent 9 declines, this 10th decline and recovery has been textbook. 
- We are a stone's throw from making new all-time highs.


The video in this report is only accessible to members
We understand the arguments a lot of investors ma...

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