COVID-19 UPDATE: USA COVID-19 cases could be sub 10,000 by end of August. USA > ROW? Singapore case prevalence exceeds Europe.

Click HERE to access the FSInsight COVID-19 Daily Chartbook.

Total USA COVID-19 cases came in at 49,820, which is up from 1D ago (typical midweek) but is down ~9,000 from 7D ago.  The 7D ago delta is the key and as we mentioned in prior notes, is a proxy for the R0.  If R0 < 1.0 is similar to seeing 7D delta negative.

- the most noticeable trend is the 7D delta decline is accelerating
- 5,000 or so last week
- 10,000 this week

The video in this report is only accessible to members

Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project

Daily cases only 2,000 by the end of August?
We made a simple table below. This is forecast, assuming daily cases are 10,000 lower vs 7D ago.

- By the end of August, USA might have 2,000 cases
- 10,000 7D delta assumes no improvement in R0

The video in this report is only accessible to members

Source: Fundstrat

By the way, this would track what we saw in the NY tristate area.  As shown below, it took 25 days for cases to fall 75% and 46 to fall 90%.  Cases peaked on July 17th in the US.

The video in this report is only accessible to members
Source: FundstratSTRATEGY: If we see a crushing decline in cases in the next few weeks, the rotation will be violentTHOUGHT: If US follows the above path for cases, we should see a violent rotation in stocks.  I have been finding investors closed to the idea of buying Cyclicals, because many have a 1-3 month time horizon and in this period o...

Unlock this article with a FREE 30-Day Trial!

An FSI Pro, or FSI Macro subscription is required in order to access this content.

*Free trial available only on a monthly plan

More from the author

Disclosures (show)

Get invaluable analysis of the market and stocks. Cancel at any time. Start Free Trial

Articles Read 2/2

🎁 Unlock 1 extra article by joining our Community!

You’ve reached your limit of 2 free monthly articles. Please enter your email to unlock 1 more articles.

Already have an account? Sign In

Don't Miss Out
First Month Free