COVID-19 UPDATE: Case trends more than "half-full" and in outright decline. Last time case decline = epicenter rotation

Yesterday, I had a conversation with Chris Murray, IHME Director and Chair of Dept of Health Metric Sciences.  The IHME is the organization that has used big-data models to forecast infections, cases, deaths and hospitalizations.  Their models have been used by several governments, including the US, to inform and govern their COVID-19 policy responses.  

Below is the IHME model for daily infections (infections are infected, cases are "detected infections") and as shown below, the IHME model suggests that this recent surge in daily infections is likely peaking.  The surge started in early June (which coincides with the BLM protests) but the course correction/mask mandates, etc. are now resulting in an apex in infections.  This is very good news as it coincides with a peak in confirmed daily cases.  In other words, testing is now capturing properly the change in trend.  And this trend change is that the surge in COVID-19 cases is ending (centered in 4 states, FL, CA, AZ, TX, or F-CAT).

The video in this report is only accessible to members
Source: IHMEBut even as daily case surge is peaking, it will take some time for daily deaths to peak.  This is a natural lag and that means the US is still facing more fatalities in the days ahead.  Daily deaths, in other words, will keep risin...

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