COVID-19 UPDATE: F-CAT rolling over. But of 12 states "last to open," 5 relapsing -- VA, IL, MD, MI and PA -- VIMMP

Well, it looks like the 4-week COVID-19 surge is finally ending.  This is best measured in two ways:

- The new epicenter, FL, CA, AZ, TX, or F-CAT, looks like it is clearly rolling over now (more than a plateau)
- The 7D change (cleans seasonality) in daily cases is down.  The first time since June 9th
- It looks like the 4-week surge (post-BLM protests, we believe) is now running its course

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Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project

The video in this report is only accessible to members


Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project

We realize that skepticism is going to run high.  After all, there have been other "false dawns" and there remain the testing lags.  Plus, we know mayors and governors are still in a "panic" but recall, NYC officials were still in a panic 45 days past the peak.  But hospitalization trends (7D change of the daily gross admissions) and even daily deaths (7D change) are showing a similar plateau/decline.  Thus, it is not just cases.

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STRATEGY: No such thing as a "triple top" = new all-time highs next key level...
The S&P 500 once again showed the old adage, "there is no such thing as a triple top" played out again today.  The S&P 500 closed decisively above 3,233.

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The strength of the equity market is an understandable puzzle.  We are in the midst of the great...

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