COVID-19 UPDATE: Daily cases surge to record +62,947 and daily deaths ticked up to +819 vs 550-600 a week ago. Watch CCL. Array ( [cookie] => 05a680-5a43c3-e1b1cc-f45b35-9d736a [current_usage] => 2 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 2 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => 1 [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 0 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => [visitor_id] => 199467 [user_id] => [reason] => [method] => ) 1 and can accesss
The trend in COVID-19 is a mixed picture:
- Cases are growing at an "uncontained" rate = Bad
- Deaths are diverging (mostly falling but def diverging) = Good
- Estimated Infections have been generally falling = Good (see below)
Source: IHME
But this is not the best case scenario. The best case would be for cases to "peak" in the US and then decisively fall. The epicenter for COVID-19 in the US is four states, FL, CA, AZ, TX, or F-CAT, and thus, for the "best case" to materialize, we need to see F-CAT cases apex. We believe TX has (but seriously, we could be too optimistic, but Houston certainly seems to have peaked) and FL and AZ are not far behind. So, this "peak" could be coming soon. Even with the daily reported cases surging to new alarming high today at +62,947 (+11,073 vs 1D ago), we know nearly every state has "course corrected" and mask compliance is growing, so there are known catalysts to slow this case growth.
Daily deaths are ticking up... this needs to be watched
If I had to flag a new "source of worry," it is that daily deaths in the US have risen in the past 2 days, with deaths of +905 (1D ago) and +819 (today). This is above the ~225 deaths per day seen over the weekend and a step up from the 550-600 daily deaths seen last week. Deaths from COVID-19 are tragic and senseless. And a rise in deaths is a sign the US is seeing more Americans succumb to the worst outcome. So, we need to keep an eye on this. And it reminds us of the urgency of Project Warp Speed (US effort to get a vaccine by January 2021).


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