COVID-19 UPDATE: Getting harder to ignore widening divergence between "cases" (new high, Sat >57,000) and "deaths" (new low 213, down 92% from highs)

Financial markets are resuming after the July 4th holiday (3-day weekend).  The S&P 500 4% gain last week, despite COVID-19 spread accelerating in the US (measured by daily cases), suggests markets may be shifting away from "cases" as the primary metric to assess the state of the pandemic in the US -- and in any case, the gains despite the pandemic setback is a "half-full" outcome. It is increasingly clear, markets are looking through cases:

- Daily deaths continue to fall and fell to a new cycle low today to 213, down 92% from the high of 2,279 seen on 4/29/2020.
- The new "epicenter" states FL, CA, AZ, TX, or F-CAT, could be rolling over in daily cases --> when they roll, COVID-19 cases will roll
- Healthcare progress continues to be a positive skew and NBC reports (see below) the White House may announce a new therapeutic study this week
- Still, most people seem to equate "case surge" = "coming calamity"

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Source: COVID-19 Tracking ProjectIn our view, F-CAT (see above) are the key states, and breakouts in the other 46 are secondary.  One only has to look at a heat map of 14D increase in cases. - In April, NY tristate was the "epicenter"- Past 2 weeks, F-CAT is where the US surge is taking place- As a side note, note this is the US Southern Border, and ...

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