COVID-19 UPDATE: USA daily cases plunge to new low 16,853 (-2,029 1D chg) but on 35% fewer tests. As US bottoms, Latam sustaining status as "global epicenter" -- time to shrink "barbell" and favor "epicenter" Array ( [cookie] => 596a25-805399-724db3-06fc84-1cfaa6 [current_usage] => 2 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 2 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => 1 [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 0 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => [visitor_id] => 208285 [user_id] => [reason] => [method] => ) 1 and can accesss
COVID-19 remains a global crisis and we realize that many people need to keep up with COVID-19 developments, particularly since we are moving into the more critical stage ("restart economy"), so feel free to share our commentary to anyone who has interest.
The "half-full" perspective gained quite a bit of traction yesterday. The S&P 500 made a decisive close well above the key 62% retrace (2,934) and there was mostly good news on the economic front (consumer confidence, new home sales, Dallas Fed) and a new low in daily COVID-19 cases in the US as well (somewhat discounted by the 35% drop in tests).
To appreciate the improvements in overall visibility (and thus, more "half-full"), it is helpful to compare what we know today compared to a month ago:
A month ago (mid-April):
- NYC was burning (case growth)
- NY tristate is epicenter crisis + nursing homes
- Risk of re-infection (Korea >450 cases) aka "no immunity"
- Vaccine 12-18 months away
- Second wave risk high, do not re-open
- S&P 500 struggling at 50% retrace (2,794)
Today:
- NYC/ NY tristate cases down 90% from highs
- US no longer epicenter
- Korea CDC says ZERO cases of re-infection. Looks like recovered patients are immune.
- 10 vaccine candidates in clinical evaluations + 114 in pre-clinical evaluation
- States open >3 weeks are not seeing a rise in cases. Europe is not seeing the second wave. No second wave in Asia
- S&P 500 blasted past 62% retrace (2,934) and looks to make "new highs" before year-end
As you can see, on many fronts, visibility has improved considerably. And factoring in the record cash on sidelines (money market cash) plus extreme risk aversion by investors (BofA fund manager survey + AAII), and we have the juxtaposition of improving fundamentals with lots of dry powder on the sidelines. Hence, this is why the market risk/reward is positive and affirms our view that the market is now in the hands of buyers.
The decisive close above the 62% retracement also solidifies we are in a new bull market. Since 1929, there is no instance of a 35% bear market, then a 62% retrace, that ever fell to new lows. In fact, the 50% retrace in those precedent instances acted as support. Thus, 2,794 is really the key level on the downside. And we also think it is time to reduce the "barbell" and take less exposure on secular growth and add this to "epicenter" exposure.
Epi-center groups (Discretionary, Financials, Energy and Industrials) have already asserted leadership. As of yesterday's close, they are now outperforming the S&P 500 from the 3/23 lows AND in the past week. Yup. The epicenter is now the pivot driving overall market gains.
There is a lot of upside if this is the case.
- Epicenter are only 26% of the market cap (hence, why indices did not crash further)
- But they are 62% of the potential point gains if stocks retrace to Feb highs -- 234 points of the 400 total points.
Thus, with better incoming economic data, the risk/reward is much better for "epicenter" stocks.


Become a Member To Access FS Insight Research
FS Insight gives individual investors access to Tom Lee's research, previously only available to banks and hedge funds.
|
|||
Join Now |
|
|||
Join Now |
What's included in your FSI Membership?

Thomas J. Lee
Head of Research
Type | Publication | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Monthly | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Reports |
First Word The best market research out there -- on a near-daily basis. |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
||||
Intraday Alerts These are released periodically after crucial market developments. |
Real-Time | |||||||
Weekly Roadmap Weekly summary of market events and updates on our key theses. |
![]() |
|||||||
Webinars & Videos |
Macro Minute Video Daily video commentary on market conditions & key events. |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
|||
Outlook Webinars We host over 12 LIVE webinars per year with our research team and high-profile special guests. Incredible value and market insights! |
Yearly | |||||||
Granny Shots Webinars |
![]() |
|||||||
CEO Interview Webinars | Quarterly | |||||||
Appearances Archive | Real-Time | |||||||
Allocation Tools |
"Super Granny" Shots Stock List Granny Shots we expect to tactically outperform and underperform. |
![]() |
||||||
Granny Shots Stock List Thematic investment stock picks that aim to outperform the S&P 500. |
![]() |
|||||||
Sector Allocation A sector allocation strategy that is designed to outperform the S&P 500 while taking minimal risk. |
![]() |
|||||||
Market Alerts |
⚡️FlashInsights Real-time market commentary about macro and crypto events from our research heads. |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
Real-Time |

Mark L. Newton
Head of Technical Strategy
Type | Publication | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Monthly | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Reports |
Daily Technical Strategy Daily commentary on market trends and short term opportunities. |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
||
Weekly Roadmap Weekly summary of market events and updates on our key theses. |
![]() |
|||||||
Webinars & Videos |
Daily Technical Strategy Daily commentary on market trends and short term opportunities. |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
||
Live Technical Analysis |
![]() |
|||||||
Outlook Webinars We host over 12 LIVE webinars per year with our research team and high-profile special guests. Incredible value and market insights! |
Yearly | |||||||
Appearances Archive | Real-Time | |||||||
Allocation Tools |
Newton's Upticks Stock List Technically derived, intermediate-term picks of attractive risk/reward opportunities from the S&P 500. |
![]() |
||||||
Market Alerts |
⚡️FlashInsights Real-time market commentary about macro and crypto events from our research heads. |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |

L. Thomas Block
Washington Policy Strategy
Type | Publication | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Monthly | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Reports |
US Policy Weekly update on developments in Washington DC and how they may impact Wall Street. |
![]() |
![]() |
|||||
Weekly Roadmap Weekly summary of market events and updates on our key theses. |
![]() |
|||||||
Market Alerts |
⚡️FlashInsights Real-time market commentary about macro and crypto events from our research heads. |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
Real-Time |


Sean Farrell & Crypto Team
Type | Publication | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Monthly | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Reports |
Market Update Stay on top of the crypto markets with macro commentary, technical analysis, and the most relevant news. |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
||
Weekly Strategy Weekly summary of market events and updates on our key theses. |
![]() |
|||||||
Funding Fridays Are you looking for investment opportunities in the crypto space? We explore early-stage crypto opportunities in this note about where the smart money is being invested! |
![]() |
|||||||
Crypto Concepts We periodically provide in-depth research on the leading protocols, companies, and funds shaping the crypto ecosystem. |
![]() |
|||||||
Liquid Ventures A recurring research note focused on delivering unique insights into high-risk investment opportunities within the crypto ecosystem, primarily centered on early-stage or small-cap tokens. |
![]() |
|||||||
Deep Research We periodically provide in-depth research on the leading protocols, companies, and funds shaping the crypto ecosystem. |
Quarterly | |||||||
Weekly Roadmap Weekly summary of market events and updates on our key theses. |
![]() |
|||||||
Webinars & Videos |
Outlook Webinars Ongoing webinars exploring crypto opportunities, in depth research, and exclusive research offerings from our team of analysts and leading cryptocurrency firms. |
Yearly | ||||||
Crypto Comments |
Daily Technical Strategy From Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana to other coins, our Head of Technical Strategy highlights important price movement to help give you an edge. |
![]() |
||||||
Allocation Tools |
Crypto Core Strategy A powerful tool designed to help crypto investors build a crypto portfolio that outperforms the industry’s king – bitcoin – regardless of market conditions. |
![]() |
||||||
Market Alerts |
⚡️FlashInsights Real-time market commentary about macro and crypto events from our research heads. |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
Real-Time |

FS Insight Research Team
Type | Publication | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Monthly | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Reports | First to Market |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
||
*Earnings Daily This note provides investors with a myriad of useful metrics to measure the progress of earnings season |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
|||
Signal From Noise Highlights timely market themes and sectors with corresponding stocks, cutting through the day-to-day market “noise” for a distinct perspective. |
![]() |
|||||||
Community Questions We gather your inquiries and answer them in the most scalable way. Hear directly from our research principals! |
![]() |
|||||||
FS Insight Academy Our main goal is to make you a better investor! This series will guide you through key financial concepts and topics in an understandable way. |
![]() |
|||||||
Webinars & Videos |
Free Macro Webinars Live webinars and Q&A with our research team and high-profile industry leaders. |
Quarterly | ||||||
Free Crypto Webinars Live webinars and Q&A with our research team and high-profile industry leaders. |
Quarterly |
*Daily reporting during each quarterly earnings season.