COVID-19 UPDATE: USA cases crash to 17,652 (-3,444 vs yesterday) and 51% below 4/24/2020 peak of 36,116. Weighted R0 <0.75 and study suggests herd immunity at 10%

COVID-19 remains a global crisis and we realize that many people need to keep up with COVID-19 developments, particularly since we are moving into the more critical stage ("restart economy"), so feel free to share our commentary to anyone who has interest.

There appears to be a multi-state, simultaneous reduction in COVID-19 reported cases, particularly in all the Northeast states (NY, NJ, CT, MA, PA) and this had led to total reported cases crashing below 20K for the first time in almost 8 weeks.  Because no states instituted stricter measures in the past 14 days, the spontaneous drop in cases across the US does seem to suggest COVID-19 could be "burning out" to an extent.  In fact, this drop in cases is occurring at a time when residents across the US are less "compliant" with mitigation measures.  And COVID-19 tests surged >400k today vs ~300k past few days, so it is not a drop in tests.  

Cases reported early in the week (Sun/Mon) tend to be lower than mid-week, so we do not want to read too much into this.  But there are other positive data points today.  First, NY state cases crashed further to 1,660, down 85% from the peak on 4/1/2020 (37 days ago) -- so if one wanted to know the definitive trend in NY, it is down.  Gov Cuo...

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