COVID-19 UPDATE: COVID-19 deaths ex-nursing homes and ex-Tri State area --> ~19,000, or 74% lower.

COVID-19 remains a global crisis and we realize that many people need to keep up with COVID-19 developments, particularly since we are moving into the more critical stage ("restart economy"), so feel free to share our commentary to anyone who has interest.

For anyone who was driving around the US this weekend, one would have noticed a pretty sizable increase in cars on the road.  For those in the Northeast US and NY tristate area, local governments are opening some city parks and coupled with improving weather, is a factor for the increased traffic.  But of course, this is going to make a lot of people uneasy and every person has a different degree of comfort with social distance.  COVID-19 is still a serious issue for many cities (the chronic states of NY, NJ, CT, MA, IL, etc), so I understand how this causes concern.  And as there is greater movement, and more states relaxing restrictions, the two logical things to monitor is:

- individual compliance with mitigation measures of PPE, hand washing, social distance
- cases reported data since symptoms appear within 1-5 days

But the healthcare tragedy of COVID-19 is concentrated in two epicenters: first, NY/tri-state area (~38% cases and 45% deaths) and nursing homes (~17% cases and 42% deaths) (we expanded the analysis to 19 states, or 66% US).  Thus, ex- NY tri-state and ex-nursing homes:

- total US COVID-19 deaths 19,483 vs 73,569 total.  In other words, dramatically lower.

Researches at Mt Sinai posted a study that suggests those who had COVID-19 have a degree of immunity (NY Times article, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/07/health/coronavirus-antibody-prevalence.html)

Mt Sinai researchers published a study on MedRxiv last week (multiple authors) and the NY Times published an article on May 7.  The study looked at convalescent plasma and tested for antibodies.  The study has not been peer-reviewed, but their conclusion is that they believe patients who were previously COVID19 positive have antibodies "potentially providing immunity to reinfection."


Source: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.30.20085613v1?referringSource=articleShare

This is one of the first studies to suggest that people with COVID-19 have some sort of immunity and that is a good thing.  Foremost, it does suggest there could be eventual herd immunity (absent a vaccine or treatment). And it would reduce the risks of allowing such individuals to return to the workforce.

The future path of the US economy remains uncertain and therefore we understand how this leads to bifurcated futures and uncertainty among investors.  But the strong equity market gains this past friday, on the heels of the worst ever reported jobs report in history, highlights how much bad news has already been discounted with equities.  We are largely through 1Q2020 EPS.  And recall the gauntlet of horrific health and economic news over the past 5 weeks.  And yet, equities have managed to sustain gains.  We see this as evidence stocks are in the hands of buyers.


POINT #1: US cases fall to NEW LOW 20,954, -42% from peak 16 days prior (4/24/2020)...

US COVID-19 cases fell to 20,954, a pretty sizable drop from 25,100 on 5/9/2020 and 27,565 on 5/8/2020.  So the past few days have seen a cumulative drop in daily reported cases -6,611.  Weekend reporting tends to be somewhat inconsistent and thus, given reporting lags, case figures for Sundays and Mondays can seem artificially low.  But still, the trend in cases is still improving.  And there does not seem to be a "new outbreak" in any city/state and the high case counts remain with those same states.

- the 20,954 represents a new cycle low for daily reported cases, falling below the previous cycle low of 21,844 reported 5 days earlier on 5/5/2020.

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