COVID-19 UPDATE. Revisiting NYC. Still an inferno, as NYC daily cases > every state in the US and high for 65-plus. NGA (National Governors Associations) puts forth Roadmap to Recovery

COVID-19 remains a global crisis and we realize that many people need to keep up with COVID-19 developments, particularly since we are moving into the more critical stage ("restart economy"), so feel free to share our commentary to anyone who has interest. We have done many Zoom calls with our clients over the last few days (let us know if you want to do one, we would be glad to set one up, but ignore the sparse furnishings in my home office). In every conversation, the key topic is the uncertainty - uncertainty of how the world ends this pandemic crisis, uncertainty about when economies open, and more uncertainty about the path and speed of recovery.  Another issue, but not as universal, is a general skepticism, or rather, curiosity about why risk markets are actually rallying.  This latter point is logical since we are only one month into the "economic depression."   These viewpoints are rational.  After all, there is no playbook for a global pandemic, and therefore, every citizen, policymaker, and investor is operating in "new territory." But the prevalence of uncertainty underscores that investors are not bullish at all.  Ok, at least our institutional investor clients are not that bullish.  But as we have observed, the risk positioning of an uncertain investor is ...

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