COVID-19 UPDATE. Case trends still positive. 18 states might soon meet Phase I criteria. White House discusses bringing global supply chain home. Array ( [cookie] => 2a48e8-f3cdc2-6703b3-879602-deeeba [current_usage] => 2 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 2 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => 1 [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 1 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => fsi_macro [visitor_id] => 567896 [reason] => [method] => ) 1
COVID-19 remains a global crisis and we realize that many people need to keep up with COVID-19 developments, particularly since we are moving into the more critical stage ("restart economy"), so feel free to share our commentary to anyone who has interest.
One of the more interesting comments President Trump made today was his questioning of the benefit and need for global supply chains. In fact, he spent some time talking about how he ran on the platform for bringing jobs and assets home. It is possible that future policy, post-COVID-19, creates incentives for businesses to bring assets back to the US. Governments, by policy mandate, pick "winners and losers" so if this ends up being a policy initiative, this will have meaningful investment implications (at first glance, greater for US Technology, Industrials, Financials, and even Healthcare, because the US leads in Healthcare). And might also complement their desire for infrastructure spend, to re-ignite the US economy. After all, bringing assets back to the US, is asset-heavy = investment spend = good for EPS. The White House concluded their press briefing this evening and the overall tone was positive, with much progress on case front (peak was 4/10/2020 and still falling), testing availability, PPE (protective eq.). As cases drift lower across multiple metropolitan areas, policymakers and residents will face the question about when they will be amenable to easing restrictions.
POINT #1: US daily cases ~27,000, down 22% from "peak" 34,550 on 9 days ago on 4/10/2020
The overall picture for the US is encouraging. Daily net new confirmed cases reported in the past two days were ~27,000 (Sunday + Mondays, for unexplained reasons, seem to be low), which is trending lower and remains below the current "high watermark" of 34,550 on 4/10/2020.
- Given the "Phase" gating criteria of the White House is a 14-day trend in lower cases, the US overall looks to be on the right track, as overall cases are down 22% since 9 days ago.
- the deadliest date for the US was 4/15/2020 with 2,492 deaths and reported deaths of 1,654 is an improvement off those levels.
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Thomas J. Lee
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