COVID-19 UPDATE. As focus moves beyond NYC, looking at counties worse. highlights on-line shopping soaring, especially for home goods.

The incoming data for Tuesday (4/7/2020) reinforces the constellation of factors pointing to NY/NYC peaking in overall COVID-19 case growth (Cuomo even noted intubations down again).  But even as cases peak, death will continue to rise.  Deaths stem from cases that have become serious enough to require intubations, and once a patient is intubated, the mortality is quite high.  And there are also some deaths that result from the rapid deterioration of a patient.  Just as cases rise for some time after "strict social distance measures" are implemented (due to incubation period plus non-compliance), deaths will still rise for some time.

- Based on the 19 nations below, we can see the death will rise for -2 to +12 days, with a median of 4 days.  Meaning, we should see a peak in NY state deaths something within the next few weeks.

- Similarly, this means we should not necessarily assume a 'relapse' or 'breakdown' in the healthcare system is taking place if deaths rise from here.

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NYC reported a big jump in hospitalizations this evening...We will discuss NYC in greater detail on Point #2 (below below) but what was noteworthy today was a sizable jump in reported hospitalizations.  The daily increase was 3,844 which is higher than any prior level and looking at the boroughs,...

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