COVID-19 UPDATE. NYC "new cases" FLAT 5 consecutive days. FACT, Markets bottom before jobless claims peak.

**We are hosting a webinar/conference call on Friday 4/3 at 1pm ET to discuss to position for post-crisis strategy and ideas.  Details are at the bottom of this email. The next few days will bring into focus the economic carnage (secondary front) of the COVID-19 pandemic—Thursday, jobless claims; Friday, employment report; next week, earnings season. Many of our clients are talking about initial jobless claims surging to 9 million, up from a freakish 3.3 million last week.  And we think the intense selling we saw on Wednesday (-5% S&P 500) is in part, tactical investors getting short in front of the jobless report. POINT #1: A very inconvenient fact--stocks bottom before jobless claims peak...Jobless claims at 9 million are astounding because this represents about 6% of the employed workforce (152 million) and in just the last two weeks, 8% of the US workforce is now filing unemployment claims.  Because of the sudden stop of the economy, this figure could double again to 16% (another 12 million claims). - But this sudden stoppage of the economy is also suggesting that we could see a peak in jobless claims within the next few weeks, and possibly the 9 million could be the high watermark. If jobless claims are peaking soon, why does this matter?Take a look at the charts...

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