COVID-19 UPDATE. NYC still linear, Manhattan FLAT. And why S&P 500 doesn't have to fall 50% even if EPS is down 50%

The question of how much 'bad news' financial markets can absorb will be seen in the next few weeks.  The March employment report is out this Friday (although survey period was earlier in March before strict measures in place) and then we move onto earnings season. The COVID crisis is unfolding on two fronts, the leading edge of this cycle is a healthcare crisis and behind that, the economic aftershocks follow. 

With each day, there is incremental Healthcare progress and of course, the key is seeing the epicenter peak, which is NYC.

POINT #1: NYC showing steady case growth (linear not exponential), linear > exponential
The latest update (3/31/2020) for NYC was posted this evening and the daily new cases is flattening, which is a good thing and potentially suggests the spoke on 3/30 (we wrote about yesterday) might be the anomaly.  Even Queens, which saw 2,019 new cases yesterday is 50% lower and frankly, the 1,000 per day for Queens seems more like the trend. 

- This is virus and virology, so it is better for us to simply observe that New York City is still seeing a high number of cases, but it does seem like it is no longer growing exponentially.

COVID-19 UPDATE. NYC still linear, Manhattan FLAT.  And why S&P 500 doesn't have to fall 50% even if EPS is down 50%

And Manhattan, has been steady for 3 days at between 350-500 cases per day (below) and this is still well below the peak of 709 daily cases seen 3/22/2020.

COVID-19 UPDATE. NYC still linear, Manhattan FLAT.  And why S&P 500 doesn't have to fall 50% even if EPS is down 50%

And many continue to ask for data on NYC hospital admissions.  This is steady as well.  With new admittances of 808 on 3/31/2020 and below the 1,248 on 3/28/2020.

COVID-19 UPDATE. NYC still linear, Manhattan FLAT.  And why S&P 500 doesn't have to fall 50% even if EPS is down 50%

POINT #2: Statewide, daily cases rising but more states see daily case growth slowing 2X every 3 days --> 2X every 7 days
Total cases in the US rose to 24,240 (COVIDtracking project data) and reflects pretty sizable jumps in states like Louisiana (+1,212 vs +485 yesterday), Illinois (+937 vs +461) and New York State (+9,298 vs +6,984). - The outbreaks are localized, so each region has to see its own cases count slow.  And hopefully, other states outperform NY.

New York stylized skyline
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