Tom Block’s Takeaways: Rescue bill hangs in the balance while Biden is apparent nominee
- Senate failed last night to move on coronavirus Phase 3 bill, McConnell tried to write bill without Speaker Pelosi, strategy failed, hope to pick up pieces today.
- Secretary of Treasury Mnuchin, again key player, needs to cut deal with Democrats, goal is to get agreement today.
- House is not
in session. Therefore, to pass bill in next few days need to get unanimous
consent in House, only way to pass with Members not in DC. Senate is
operating with narrow 48 to 47 Republican majority with five Republicans
in quarantine.
Points of contention appear to be operations of $500 billion stabilization fund administered by Treasury, money to state and local hospitals, and funds for hospitals. - House will need its own items in legislation, may focus on increased unemployment and small business assistance.
- With markets looking for action an agreement should come today but no later than Friday.
- Former Vice President Joe Biden widens delegate lead over Senator Sanders as the Senator looks for exit strategy.
Coronavirus
After the Senate passed
the Phase 2 coronavirus bill that was exclusively written by the White House
and House Democrats, Republican Leader McConnell was determined to write the
huge Phase 3 bill in the Senate. However, with last night’s vote where
all Democrats opposed the McConnell bill bipartisanship has slipped despite the
growing crisis. In my view McConnell made a serious miscalculation thinking he
could write a bill without direct involvement of Speaker Pelosi.
There is widespread, bipartisan agreement on much of the bill that includes
billions for direct checks to Americans earning less than $75,000, expanded
unemployment assistance, a massive program for small businesses, and some sort of
aid to large businesses most exposed to the virus. However, it needs to
have some specific provisions that Speaker Pelosi and House Democrats can claim
credit for and that will be the focus of attention today with the effort led by
Treasury Secretary Mnuchin.
There are also some serious rules and procedural issues. With five
Republican Senators in quarantine, Senator McConnell only has a 48 to 47
majority. Of the five, only one, Senator Rand Paul, has been tested
positive for the disease, therefore maybe in protected suits the other four
could get to the floor to cast their votes.
More problematic is the fact that the House is not in session, most of the
Representatives are back in their districts. With the sharp cutback in air
travel it could be days before the House has a majority of its members in DC.
There is only one way to pass a bill in the House without its members there and
that is with unanimous consent. Meaning there is not a vote, just a ruling by
the chair that there is no objection heard on passing the bill. The House
does this routinely. However, the Republicans have very conservative outliers
who often object, but President Trump would likely get their buy-in.
Speaker Pelosi may have a more difficult issue with her most progressive members
led by AOC. This is why she will need some signature House accomplishment in
the final version of the legislation.
Markets are likely to drive some decision from Congress as early as today, but
definitely this week.
.
2020 race
The race for
the Democratic nomination effectively ended last week when Vice President Biden
defeated Senator Sanders in all three large states that held primary
elections. Of the 1,991 delegates needed to win the nomination Biden
currently has 1,201 to Sanders 896. But, like all aspects of American
life, the Democratic nomination has been thrown off-course by the coronavirus.
Many states have now postponed their primaries until June due to the
virus. This means that even though the former Vice President seems on a
clear course to win a majority of delegates, he won’t be able to reach the
magic number until the summer. This puts tremendous pressure on Biden and
the Democratic leadership to create an exit path for Senator Sanders.
In 2016 the race between Hilary Clinton and Senator Sanders ended in much
acrimony that many believe eventually led to Donald Trump’s narrow
victory. Democrats are committed to find a resolution this year that
gives a pathway for Sanders’s mostly young supporters, to stay in the process
and vote for Biden. The selection of a Vice Presidential candidate may
serve as a way to smooth the transition from primary contest to general
election.
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