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Jan ISM two takeaways--> LT YC still leading ISM 18 mos + exports > 50 affirms S&P 500 EPS acceleration

The January ISM manufacturing report was published this morning and it was an upside surprise.   - ISM Manufacturing 50.9 vs 48.5 (expected) and 47.2 Dec. - ISM Exports 53.3 vs 47.3 Dec and best reading since September 2018. The survey was conducted throughout January (when Coronavirus was building negative momentum) and the figure >50 is impressive.  Since ISM does not disclose the timing of its survey (we asked them) but they do accept submissions even in the final week, it is not entirely clear if the full "fear of corona pandemic" is reflected. Still, there is a lot of signal coming from this survey.  Foremost, this generally affirms our view that the 'risk-off' associated with Boeing and with Coronavirus is transmitting its effect primarily through rising equity risk premia (P/E compression) rather than EPS risk itself.POINT 1: UNBLEMISHED TRACK RECORD OF LONG-TERM YC (30Y-10Y) LEADS ISM BY 18 MONTHS...As clients of Fundstrat know, we view the 30Y-10Y yield curve as the 'Jedi' of curves and it has led the ISM Manufacturing survey by 18 months consistently in the last 3 business cycles (see our 2017 report on this, upon request). - Last year, using the 30Y-10Y curve, we noted the ISM manufacturing should recover >50 by Fall/early 2020 and as shown ...

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