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82% probability of S&P 500 gains into YE (since 1930) and 'Golden 6M' for homebuilders

The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members
As we move into the final 10 weeks of 2019, our sense is many of our institutional investors clients will remain quite active.  The reasons are intuitive: (i) too many macro moving parts (disruption/oppty); (ii) performance issues (many are not tracking their benchmarks) and (iii) political risks. Our stance remains that markets will rally strongly into YE, as we expect the S&P 500 to break to the upside from this 'markets going nowhere' for past 20 months (never been more than 20 months, so this month is a test of our thesis). POINT: When markets up >17% thru 10/15, avg gain thru YE 3.1% (82% of time, since 1930)... implies >3,100 for S&P 500 by YES&P 500 is up 17% thru 10/15 (noted in earlier FLASH, best YTD in 22 years).  The table below shows all instances (since 1930) when YTD >17%. - Notably, avg further gain is 3.1%, which implies 3,100 for S&P 500 (in range of our YE target). - 1987 is only exception (scary one) - In years when S&P 500 <17% YTD, odds of further gain is only 63% vs 82% (>17%), so YTD makes a difference. POINT: 'Golden 6M' for Homebuilders (Oct 20 to April 30, 19% gains, 80% of time) We published our annual 'Golden 6M' for homebuilders report (link-->Click here for report). Since 1999, Home...

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