First Word
Heavy week for 3Q25 EPS earnings. Polymarket shows expectations rising for "softer" Sept CPI reading.
Video_: _Sept Core CPI is reported this Friday. The first govt "macro report" since the shutdown started, which means investors will put a lot of...
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First Word
VIX surge to 25 shows "fear" creeping in. AAII flips negative again, which we view as contrarian positive. We still see S&P 500 7,000 by year-end.
The S&P 500 is up +1.17% so far this week and down -0.9% for the month. Not bad. But the level of "apprehension" for equities...
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First Word
US-China trade rhetoric heats up. 2025 proving to be worst year for fund manager in decades, setting up for performance chasing
Video_: _Markets were roiled by China headlines Tuesday, but we ultimately see this as noise. The bigger dynamic at play is the positive seasonals and...
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First Word
We are keeping our eyes on 5 things in Oct. Key is seasonally strong = S&P 500 7,000 intact
Video_: _The govt shutdown is dovish because it is putting downward pressure on economy = dovish and it is not raising inflation pressures = dovish. ...
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First Word
Polymarket shows 96% probability shutdown to last beyond 9 more days = dovish Fed
Video_: _NY Fed 1-yr expectations rose in Sept, reflecting anticipated tariff impacts, but the longer-term remained stable at 3%. This is positive. And coupled with...
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First Word
History shows probabilities favor S&P 500 7,000 by YE25 given YTD gains. Gov't shutdown = no jobs report Friday but weak ADP = "dovish" Fed
The government shutdown started at Wed 12:01am ET and this means that we will not be getting data from BLS or any agency until the...
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