Macro Strategy
- Macro Minute Video
- Intraday Alert
It's politics...U Mich inflation surge solely political divide. Rep see +0.1% vs Dems see +4.2%... Yup
Equity markets are under selling pressure due in part to a solid jobs report (actually a good thing) and intensified by a "really hot" U Mich consumer inflation survey reading with a surprise rise to +3.3% (1-yr) from +2.8% last month:This U Mich data point intensified selling of equities and...
- Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: S&P 500 closes positive "first 5 days" which strengthens our base case for 6,600. Fed minutes show FOMC members see inflation drivers actually stalling, consistent with our view
VIDEO: The first 5 days was positive, which is a good omen. The FOMC minutes show Fed officials acknowledge core components inflation weakening, but uncertainty around trade keeps members more cautious. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 5:22). https://vimeo. com/1045179245/9b5bab4914? share=copy _____________________________ 44 SMID GRANNY SHOT IDEAS: We performed...
First Word
Rise in US 10-yr yields clearly pressuring stocks, but Newton (Head of Technical Strategy) sees lower yields by year-end. Day 5 of "first 5 days" is Wed 1/8
VIDEO: We believe the ISM services and commentary around tariffs is the reasons yields jumped higher today. But Mark Newton, Head of Technical Strategy, sees...
Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Rise in US 10-yr yields clearly pressuring stocks, but Newton (Head of Technical Strategy) sees lower yields by year-end. Day 5 of "first 5 days" is Wed 1/8
VIDEO: We believe the ISM services and commentary around tariffs is the reasons yields jumped higher today. But Mark Newton, Head of Technical Strategy, sees...
First Word
S&P 500 closing above 5,881.63 on 1/8 (Wed) key to "first 5 days" -- don't let recency bias fuel bearish views.
VIDEO: We are closely watching the S&P 500 close on Wed 1/8 as this invokes the "rule of first 5 days" Please click below to view...
- Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: S&P 500 closing above 5,881.63 on 1/8 (Wed) key to "first 5 days" -- don't let recency bias fuel bearish views.Video: Macro Minute:
VIDEO: We are closely watching the S&P 500 close on Wed 1/8 as this invokes the "rule of first 5 days" Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 4:50) https://vimeo. com/1044182204/f2ae70c032? share=copy _____________________________ 44 SMID GRANNY SHOT IDEAS: We performed our quarterly rebalance on 11/25. Full stock list here -> Click here ______________________________...
First Word
2024 ending on a "whimper." Since 1928, weak final week = strong Jan 2025.
Equity markets are ending 2024 with a whimper. The S&P 500 has been down 4 of the 5 final trading days of 2024. Yet, equities...
First Word
Santa rally faltering, but fundamentals remain solid. Weakness into YE arguably positive for gains in early 2025.
VIDEO: We view the weakness in equities since Dec 24th as largely due to profit taking and arguably the drop in market breadth is somewhat constructive...
Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Santa rally faltering, but fundamentals remain solid. Weakness into YE arguably positive for gains in early 2025.
VIDEO: We view the weakness in equities since Dec 24th as largely due to profit taking and arguably the drop in market breadth is somewhat constructive...
Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Mark Newton notes a bounce likely underway. 2025 setup still positive
VIDEO: We discuss how 20% back-to-back years cannot be viewed in isolation, and we should look at the preceding year or 2022. This puts 3-yr cumulative...