Outlooks
2026 OUTLOOK (Lee): Wall of Skepticism + New Fed, S&P 500 Year-end 7,700
PLEASE JOIN US TOMORROW AT 1PM ET FOR OUR 2026 YEAR AHEAD OUTLOOK. Register HERE. Video_: _Please tune into our 2026 Outlook webinar. At the...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Dec FOMC rate decision, even if a "hawkish cut," still has bullish implications and is a clearing event
Video_: _We expect stocks to rally post-FOMC, despite what is widely expected to be a hawkish cut. That is, the Fed will likely raise the...
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First Word
A "hawkish cut" is consensus for Wed FOMC, but this is also a "market clearing" event, hence, December rally still intact.
We still expect the S&P 500 to finish 2025 achieving new all-time highs, reaching 7,000-7,300. But the path seems labored, and in the first days...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: 2025 is another year where '10 best days' came into play. Ex-10 best days, S&P 500 is -12%, which explains why investors have been bearish all year
Video_: _Investors have been bearish for 75% of the weeks in 2025, based upon AAII. We believe this reflects the fact that many investors sold...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: 6 reasons to expect a rally in Dec, and history shows odds even higher after a 'flat/down' Nov
Video_: _We discuss how December is shaping up to be a strong month. While stocks have felt shaky due to the November declines and also...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: We continue to expect stocks to rally into YE. Equity markets like the potential of a dovish new Fed Chair
Video_: _Equity markets continued to climb higher, after the grinding selloff since the Oct highs. In our view, the rally into YE remains intact. Please...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: 5 reasons we still expect a YE S&P 500 rally to 7,000-7,300
Video_: _We discuss how this selloff of 6% the Oct highs is actually pretty routine. And we list the 5 arguments for why stocks rally...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: 5 things that likely 'spooked' the market today triggering that ugly reversal
Video_: _We discuss the 5 possible factors that triggered the disappointing reversal for equity markets. NVDA -1.56% posted strong results and equities should have had a...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: $NVDA results beat and major relief for investors = expect positive follow through for equities
Video_: _We had expected equities would rally post-NVDA, partially due to relief and partially reflecting that the stock was down into earnings. We still expect...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: All eyes on $NVDA. Given stock flat past 5 mos and caution on AI, probabilities favor post-EPS rally
Video_: _NVDA -1.56% stock has been flat for the past 5 months and the P/E is the lowest since June 2025. So a lot of caution...
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