First Word
Decent incoming data today. Trump reveals the "Trump rule" and the template for a dovish Fed in 2026
Equities gained again on Tuesday, as S&P 500 posted 5 consecutive gains and taking year-to-date gains to 18%. We continue to expect a positive bias...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: 6 blessings we are thankful for in 2025. And why the setup remains positive for Dec
Video_: _There are 6 blessings we are thankful for in 2025 and we think many of these carry over into 2026. Thus, we continue to...
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First Word
Wall of worry keeps growing given $ORCL and Venezuela. But the risk/reward still positive into year-end.
Equity markets are churning so far in December and stocks seem to feel "heavy" (meaning, it takes a lot to make a stock rise, but...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: This week is a heavy data week with Nov/Oct jobs and Nov CPI, and a weak jobs moves forward Fed "put" = good
Video_: _At the halfway point for December, equity markets are flat and we still expect a year-end rally towards S&P 500 7,000-7,300. There may be...
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Outlooks
2026 OUTLOOK (Lee): Wall of Skepticism + New Fed, S&P 500 Year-end 7,700
Video_: _Please tune into our 2026 Outlook webinar. At the start of 2025, we said markets had two "puts" -- the Fed and the White...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Dec FOMC rate decision, even if a "hawkish cut," still has bullish implications and is a clearing event
Video_: _We expect stocks to rally post-FOMC, despite what is widely expected to be a hawkish cut. That is, the Fed will likely raise the...
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First Word
A "hawkish cut" is consensus for Wed FOMC, but this is also a "market clearing" event, hence, December rally still intact.
We still expect the S&P 500 to finish 2025 achieving new all-time highs, reaching 7,000-7,300. But the path seems labored, and in the first days...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: 2025 is another year where '10 best days' came into play. Ex-10 best days, S&P 500 is -12%, which explains why investors have been bearish all year
Video_: _Investors have been bearish for 75% of the weeks in 2025, based upon AAII. We believe this reflects the fact that many investors sold...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: 6 reasons to expect a rally in Dec, and history shows odds even higher after a 'flat/down' Nov
Video_: _We discuss how December is shaping up to be a strong month. While stocks have felt shaky due to the November declines and also...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: We continue to expect stocks to rally into YE. Equity markets like the potential of a dovish new Fed Chair
Video_: _Equity markets continued to climb higher, after the grinding selloff since the Oct highs. In our view, the rally into YE remains intact. Please...
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