Macro Minute
- Macro Minute
- Macro Minute
VIDEO: Macro Minute: Equities reacted negatively post Powell, but the key to us remains inflation. As near-term headline risks loom, history suggests market could rally in 4Q.
We discuss: How markets took FOMC hawkish last week, but we think the key is still inflation, which is on a glidepath lower. Historical study suggests stocks could perform well in Q4 based on price action this year. Please click below to view today’s Macro Minute (Duration: 9:06). https://vimeo. com/867760988/6d7c716937? share=copy PS: if...
- Macro Minute
VIDEO: Macro Minute: 3 reasons we think -2.5% decline is an over-reaction. "Higher for longer" is really "higher for longer DUE to higher GDP."
We discuss: why the "hawkish" take by markets from FOMC ultimately reverses in the next few weeks. There are 3 reasons, but the most important is the Fed funds YE 2024 is higher by +50bp because growth is raised by +40bp. Wouldn't it be worse if Fed raised GDP view...
- Macro Minute
VIDEO: Macro Minute: Markets apprehensive into Sept FOMC rate decision (Wed 2pm). Given S&P 500 oversold, history suggests stocks more likely to gain in the following week. Stay with Technology, Energy and Industrials
We discuss: why markets could react positively post-FOMC meeting this Wed. This reflects both a potential change in Fed view on inflation but also because equities are oversold. Please click below to view today’s Macro Minute (Duration: 6:29). https://vimeo. com/866146358/35cefb59d5? share=copy PS: if you are enjoying our service and its...
- Macro Minute
VIDEO: Macro Minute: Reasons why we see FOMC rate decision Wed as turning point higher for equities
We discuss: the multiple reasons why the Wed FOMC rate decision is likely a positive turning point for markets. These reasons span from Nov hike odds falling, to stabilizing 10-yr yields and positioning data that shows investors are now outright pessimistic. Please click below to view today’s Macro Minute (Duration: 4:05)....
- Macro Minute
VIDEO: Macro Minute: ECB makes dovish turn, risk rallies… a harbinger to when that day arrives for Fed. Removing tactical OW of regional banks.
We discuss: It’s been a data heavy week, but the big news is ECB today and it’s dovish impact on bond markets. Please click below to view today’s Macro Minute (Duration: 5:36). https://vimeo. com/864580944/d21ab7b5f5? share=copy PS: if you are enjoying our service and its evidence-based approach, please leave us a positive...
- Macro Minute
VIDEO: Macro Minute: A "hot" August CPI does not end equities, but it will raise the level of skepticism of Fed progress. Of last 6 CPI "misses" (hot), equities gained 4 of 6 times.
We discuss how consensus is now leaning towards a "hot" Aug core CPI. This does not necessarily hurt equites as of the last 6 "hot prints" stocks rallied 4 of the 6. Plus, it all comes down to details and how bonds react Please click below to view today’s Macro Minute...
- Macro Minute
VIDEO: Macro Minute: While angst remains of a pending recession, even today, we saw signs of green shoots
We discuss: the evidence bolstering the case for a soft landing, including tame wage pressures, growth in labor force, cooling apartment rents, and even inflation expectations Please click below to view today’s Macro Minute (Duration: 5:07). https://vimeo. com/863395567/843bca9f2d? share=copy PS: if you are enjoying our service and its evidence-based approach, please...
- Macro Minute
VIDEO: Macro Minute: Important week ahead, and we expect August CPI (9/13) of +0.20% core or less to further reduce odds of a Nov hike, a positive for equities. Even as UAW strike looms.
We discuss: An important week lies ahead, most notably August CPI on 9/13 but also $AAPL debut and potential UAW strike. That said, we still view Sept as front-loaded on softness and probabilities favor stocks rising after CPI. Please click below to view today’s Macro Minute (Duration: 6:39). https://vimeo. com/862983280/6a055ead82? share=copy...
- Macro Minute
VIDEO: Macro Minute: Headwinds now, but expect tailwinds to prevail in Sept. Upward revisions in profits strongest argument against recession.
We discuss: How headwinds of VIX, yields, apprehension are growing. But tailwinds are emerging this month as well. The most notable is EPS revisions inflected positive and along with other factors is the reason we see probabilities of a better finish to Sept. Please click below to view today’s Macro Minute (Duration:...
- Macro Minute
VIDEO: Macro Minute: While September off to a soft start, 3 reasons we see inflection in the next week
We discuss: While it is disappointing to see stocks down the first 3 days of Sept (closing below 4,507.66 on S&P 500), 3 things suggest we should see stocks gain traction from later this week into month-end, including seasonals, signs of capitulation and some surprising developments around used cars. Please...
