How To Pick Stocks

“The four most dangerous words in investing are: this time it’s different.”

-Sir John Templeton

This week is the eightieth anniversary of the Battle of Britain. During these somber times, we find inspiration in those who overcame adversity in the past. Investing would be easy with the benefit of hindsight, right? Well yes literally, but what if we asked you, knowing what you know about history, to guess when the British stock market bottomed in the Second World War. What would be your guess? Probably after it became clear that the British were not going to be annihilated, right? Wrong. Would you believe us if we told you that the British stock market bottomed a month before the Battle of Britain even began? How hard would it have been to buy at that period of time? Pessimism ruled. That means that through the fire-bombing of London, V1 and V2 Rocket attacks, The Blitz, the U-Boat Blockade, The Fall of Singapore, and the failed cross-channel raid at Dieppe, the upward trend of the market went unbroken. As we face a comparably grim moment, and indeed the most significant exogenous shock to the market since World War II, it behooves us to remember both what commentators were saying would happen in the markets and to recall what actually happened. Better still,...

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