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FSI Sector Allocation

FSI Sector Allocation

My work and key indicators remain unfavorable now that “Dovish Pivot” by the Fed has been definitively taken off the board, and for now equity market downside risk is considerable. The ASM indicator for the S&P 500 is still falling and looks to need more...

2020 December FSI Sector Outlook

2022 August FSI Sector Outlook

The rally which began at the June lows for the S&P 500 is still making its way higher as it gained some fuel last week after the FOMC meeting and Chair Powell’s press conference comments, which were taken quite bullishly because of some interpreting that a “Dovish Pivot” had been...

2022 July FSI Sector Outlook

Despite a rally in the back half of June, the month and the quarter were terrible, which ranks among one of the worst six-month starts of a year ever.  There were a host of reasons behind the weakness in June, but chief among them were growing economic slowdown fears and...

2022 June FSI Sector Outlook

During the back half of May, the equity markets had a weekly up close after eight consecutive weeks of losses. I had been expecting a bounce given the persistence of selling, but my key indicators are not flashing the all-clear signal. Based on my work, we are not out of...

2022 May FSI Sector Outlook

As readers should know by now, I have updated my macro view in US equities. I began the year forecasting a turbulent 1H22 to be followed by a constructive 2H22 that would have been a resumption of the bull market. Please note that my view has now shifted to outright...

2022 April FSI Sector Outlook

The investing backdrop continues to be quite challenging as there are lots of news headlines regarding Ukraine/Russian nearly daily and they are often conflicting.  The spillover into commodity markets, inflation, interest rates, and central bank policy are also contributing to the elevated levels of volatility.  As these dominoes fall, the...

2022 March FSI Sector Outlook

The market is undoubtedly enduring a time of great uncertainty. In my opinion, it’s important during times like these to get grounded in process and data to try and diminish your natural emotional responses. One thing I’ve learned over my decades of investing experience is that while periods like these...

2022 February FSI Sector Outlook

The year has gotten off to a rocky start and was the most treacherous since the specter of a truly global pandemic reared its ugly head during 1Q20.  I have been commenting for some time that markets would likely be facing challenges during the first half of 2022.   Not only...

2022 January FSI Sector Outlook

With 2021 behind us, many forecasters make a big deal about the year ahead as if the flipping of the calendar has magically altered the investment landscape. Yes, there are some positive seasonal factors that occur during January because of institutional and retail portfolio flows, but the underlying backdrop normally...

  • FSI Sector Allocation
December 2, 2021

2021 December FSI Sector Outlook

Following the ongoing earnings driven rally that occurred during the first three weeks of November that we had been expecting, the equity markets have run into a formidable three-pronged headwind — being tactically overbought, the announcement and global “panic” regarding the Omicron COVID variant, and hawkish comments from Fed Chairman...

  • FSI Sector Allocation
November 4, 2021

2021 November FSI Sector Outlook

October confounded the bears who were beginning to growl quite loudly. Indeed, instead of getting tricks and a deeper correction that took the S&P 500 towards 4000 or lower, investors who stepped up on our tactical buy signal were rewarded with treats. With the FOMC announcing its much anticipated “tapering”,...