See bottom of email for analyst certification and important disclosures.
Reminder, as S&P 500 nears all-time high, 'markets that go nowhere' for 20 months historically resolve with upside breakout
The prior all-time high in the S&P 500 was 3,027.98 on
July 26, 2019 and the S&P 500 is currently close to exceeding this level.
If the S&P 500 manages to make an all-time, this will be a ‘textbook’ resolution of ‘markets going nowhere’
– There have been 3 prior instances since WWII where markets were flat 20M, 12M and within 1% of highs.
– 3 of 3 times, there was an upside breakout with an average gain of 51% –> this implies S&P 500 4,500 by end of 2021.
Surprisingly, there is no instance, where this “markets going nowhere” extended past 21 months. Hence, November would be the 21st month.
If we get upside breakout here, this would strengthen our view that equities will rally into YE above 3,125.