See bottom of email for analyst certification and important disclosures.
NH and Democratic Race
New Hampshire has confirmed the trend seen in Iowa with Sanders and Buttigieg leading the pack; but last night Senator Amy Klobuchar emerged as a serious candidate coming in third. With the results from the first two races some signals seem to be emerging.
Senator Sanders appears to be making a strong statement that he is the preferred candidate of the progressive wing of the Party and this leaves Senator Warren looking for a story to tell why she needs to remain in the race. While Sanders won his vote was cut in half from the 60% he got in 2016 against Hillary Clinton. The rise of Mayor Buttigieg, the strong showing of Senator Klobuchar and the decline of Vice President Biden, makes the moderate lane interesting but murky. The uncertainty among the moderate candidates creates an opening for Mayor Bloomberg who has been running commercials in preparation for running in all 14 states where elections will be held on Super Tuesday March 3.
Before Super Tuesday Nevada has its Caucus next Saturday February 22 and South Carolina votes in a traditional primary on February 29; then the big one – Super Tuesday when 30% of all delegates will be selected. There will also be two more debates during February: Nevada on February 19 and South Carolina on February 25.
With so much at stake on Super Tuesday it is hard to see any of the top candidates leaving the race before the big event. After Super Tuesday money is likely to dry up for those who have been unable to get a solid core of convention delegates. The Sanders vs Warren progressive lane should be finalized, are Buttigieg or Klobuchar for real, and what’s the future of the septuagenarians – Biden and Bloomberg?